|
Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Kondratieff - Genius or Fraudster? Part 2
The Kondratieff Wave. Peaks and troughs
are associated with major political or cultural events.
Kondratieff’s ideas should be taken in the global
perspective. The time of growth is also one of geo-political stability. When
things are no longer on the up then old alliances fracture and new friendships
are made. When the downside is nearing completion then it is the new that will
take things forward. As Ian Gordon (IG) has pointed out, in 1930, America was
the largest creditor nation on earth. They are now the biggest debtors. China
and Japan are now the largest creditors and could be the unlikely alliance to
lead us into Spring. Thus as the USA replaced the UK in the last winter so will
the two great Eastern powers replace America.
This is not the only thing that the US has to worry about. As America replaced
Great Britain as the great economic power after the last Kondratieff Winter so
the US Dollar replaced the British Pound. IG has an almost apocalyptic concept
of what may happen next: “I truly believe that the world monetary system will
collapse in the Kondratieff Winter, much as it did in 1932 and 1933 when the
world gold standard system collapsed. Britain went off the gold standard system
in September 1931 and was followed by several other countries. And eventually,
effectively, the U.S. went off too. The system, while it lasted, allowed
individuals in the U.S. to exchange paper for gold. We now have a fiat system.
Incidentally, it’s the first time, I think, in history that the entire world is
being run on a paper money system, which is a U.S. dollar system. I think that
that fiat system is going to collapse much as the gold standard system collapsed
in 1930. So it really doesn’t bode well for the U.S. dollar if that does
happen.”
Gordon believes that now people have discovered the only way money is valued is
against debt then they will demand some sort of stability. Traditionally, until
after the last Winter, money was valued against gold. This could well happen
again.
If you take these factors into account then Kondratieff’s ideas still hold good.
Maybe a less scientific way of looking at all of this is to say that when the
last generation to see a depression is dying off then it is time for a new one
to start.
Although the last sentence is a bit flippant, this still points to the whole
point of what Kondratieff was trying to achieve. When things are really down,
i.e. Winter, then this is getting towards the worst part. The only question is
how long will it be before the cycle bottoms out and things start to get better?
This is the season of debt repudiation and commodity price deflation which has
been partly brought about by, amongst other things, debt defaults. By seeing
what has happened in the past it is possible to envision what should happen in
the future.
Everyone has now accepted that it is physically impossible to maintain the
present worldwide debt and that it will take a minor miracle to buy our way out
of the situation as it now stands. The present Kondratieff Wave still has life
in it, in fact, it has lots of life. In April and May there was an increase in
world stock markets and people got excited, saying that the worst was over. This
was nothing more than a bubble and things will get worse before they improve.
Some speculate that this means the Dow Jones will drop to as low at 1,500 before
things get better.
There is also the problem that even though there is money going out of the
economy because of collapsing debt, it will be overcome by the money being
forced into it by the central banks. Somewhere out there is tens and tens of
trillions of debt which has to be “cleansed” from the economy. On top of that
there are the trillions of US Dollars which have been lost from the US stock
market alone. These are real losses. As are the ones suffered by those owning
real estate. The Federal Reserve’s solution is to print money - and fast. This
is also the solution of Gordon Brown. However, they forget that banks have to
want to lend it and there will be borrowers who have to want to borrow it. In
the present circumstances this will probably not happen. This means that there
will not be inflation but deflation.
The Winter of the K-wave is a dangerous period. But it will be eased for those
holding a good, liquid multi-asset class diverse portfolio which should
definitely include gold.
|
The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]@mbmg-international.com.comm.com.com
|
Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Expanding your horizons?
 While
a digital point and shoot may be your introduction to photography as a
fun pastime, sooner or later you will find that your equipment is
lacking. You can’t get close enough to get a good portrait, or your wide
angle isn’t wide enough, or trying to take an action shot is impossible.
You have reached the restrictions produced by your equipment.
Now you will want to expand upon your current equipment, and even when
you are just starting out you should have an eye to the future, as money
spent wisely now can result in great savings later.
Firstly, you need a good camera - an SLR (single lens reflex). The first
pointer is to select a good brand. There are many to choose from, but if
you look at the pros who are out every day shooting thousands of images
you will find the same names on the camera cases. One of my favorite
brands has been Nikon, which has served me well in the 35 mm field.
Nikon equals bullet proof and quality lenses. Others such as Canon,
Pentax, Olympus, etc., are also excellent brands, all of which have
interchangeable lenses too, so your basic system can be enlarged upon
over a period of time, and your original lenses will still be good.
The SLR is the center of your equipment. It is this camera that will
allow you to be creative in your shots. It is this camera that will win
you awards and recognition. It will be expensive, so choose wisely. For
my money, the ideal “starter” SLR would be a Nikon D50. A camera that
has a manual mode that allows you to make all the decisions.
Now you look at lenses. The “standard” lens that will come with your SLR
will most likely be a 50 mm. Buy firstly a wide angle lens. Around 28 or
24 mm is good, or even 20 mm for very dramatic shots, but the distortion
problem can be a little much at this wide angle. The next lens you
should buy is around the focal length of 135 mm - the ideal lens for
portraits.
No zooms? No, I personally do not like zoom lenses. The sharpness is not
as good as “prime” lenses (though I have to say they are much better
these days), but one reason I do not like them for new photographers is
that zoom lenses make for lazy photographers. Instead of walking in to
compose the subject, the photographer zooms in. The depth of field is
lost, the flash is too far away and the chance of a perfect shot is
lost.
You should also keep your old point and shoot compact camera, or if it
needs replacement, stick to the better brands if you want to get
something which will last, and even more importantly, one that will
return crisp images. All the top brands make some very good small point
and shooters, with excellent lenses. This camera is for those situations
where you don’t want to lug all the gear, when you need something light
and pocket portable. Get one with a 24 or 28 mm lens and built in flash
which can be turned off.
The next important piece of equipment is the bag you carry your
equipment around in. My choice is a soft padded camera bag with
adjustable divisions. Waterproof in tropical rainstorms is important, so
get one that has the zip fastener covered by a lip of material. Some
exterior pockets to carry batteries, a spare pair of fold-up reading
glasses (if you need them) and a pocket torch. Again, get a good one,
even though they are expensive. Mine is quite battered and worn, but is
now over 20 years old and has been round the world several times. It was
money well spent.
Other equipment includes filters, and I will do a separate article on
this subject another week - but do use adaptor rings to bring all the
lenses to the same size. Again a cost saving later, when all your
filters can then be interchangeable. And to start with, one of those
dinky little table-top tripods.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Despite what some women say - man is not a large rat
With the world apparently hanging by its proverbial
fingertips waiting for the development of the wonder vaccine to destroy Mr.
Porker’s virus, perhaps it is time to look at the safety involved with new
drugs and vaccines. Remember that in 1976 a vaccine was rushed through by
order of an American president, and I believe more people died from the
vaccine than died from the flu from which it was supposed to protect the
public. It also left a large number of people with a nasty condition called
the Guillain-Barré syndrome, and about 30 percent of those with
Guillain-Barré still have a residual weakness after three years.
So, have you ever wondered just how a new drug finds its way on to the
pharmacist’s shelves? Just how do the pharmaceutical companies manage to
develop newer vaccines and drugs such as ACE inhibitor antihypertensives
when there were already plenty of alternatives? Or the apparently stiff
competition in the drugs for males with Erectile Dysfunction. (I am sure you
have all been receiving emails every day offering you newer and stronger
lead for your particular pencil!)
However, when any new medication is formulated, there begins a very long
process before the new “wonder drug” is licensed for use by you and me. Part
of that process is testing the compound on live beings. Note I did not say
“human” beings. Those live beings are usually convenient test animals, of
which Mr. Rat the rodent is a prime example.
We always need to know how poisonous is the new drug. Mr. Rat is then fed
the new compound in ever increasing quantities until the dose high enough to
kill 50 percent of the rat population is reached. The scientists call this
the LD50 (Lethal Dose for 50 percent) for the new compound - but remember
this is for rats. If it takes 10 mg of compound A to kill 50 percent of the
rats, but only 1 mg of compound B, then B is 10 times stronger than A.
Pregnant Mrs. Rats are also fed the new drug and the offspring are
thoroughly examined to see if there are any abnormalities, greater than the
‘normal’ amount of expected abnormalities. Yes, no animal, including us, is
without a usual percentage of birth abnormalities. Laboratory rats in
particular are well known for being able to develop all sorts of
abnormalities if you even just look at them sideways!
Only after this exhaustive testing is the drug then used in limited test
runs on a very limited human exposure group. And, by and large, that does
not include its testing on productive age females.
All this takes an enormous length of time, so next time you read of the new
wonder drug “breakthrough” do not expect that this will appear in the
pharmacy next week. Unfortunately too, many of these new drugs will end up
never being released as further research often turns up problems that only
made themselves apparent after long term usage.
However, even the ones that do get released have to be approached with
caution. Just because rat testing appeared to show that the drug was “safe”,
does not mean that humans will also react the same way. As the caption this
week says, man is not a large rat! This is one reason why women in
particular must be very careful with the drugs they take during pregnancy,
particularly in the first three months, that time when the growing foetal
structures are susceptible to toxic chemical damage. In fact, any woman who
has to take regular medication should ask her obstetrician about the
relative risks. However, this does not mean stop taking the tablets as soon
as you miss a period. Letting the maternal problems run unchecked can be an
even greater risk to the baby than the risk from the medication taken by
Mum.
Antenatal care is a very specialized branch of medicine and I do recommend
that you should check in with your obstetrician for advice. You may not be a
rat - but you don’t want to be a guinea pig either!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
In response to Bart’s problem of a couple of weeks ago where he has found he has
a couple of the girls on the go and asks “Should I get a Private Eye to keep the
place under surveillance, or should I just have it out with Number 1? Do you
think Number 2 would contact Number 1 if I do nothing?” So what do you do? You
just brush him off, suggesting he rent the condo out for 12 months and say
goodbye to both Number 1 and Number 2 and “grow up a little before you return”.
Do you really think this is justified, Hillary? By putting someone down, is this
good advice? I would have suggested that the guy just carry on as he was doing.
There’s nothing either of them can do to him. It’s not as if he’s signed a
contract or married to either of them, is it?
Larry
Dear Larry (the Lawyer),
You demonstrate the old male chauvinism, where what the man does is OK, and the
woman’s feelings are ignored as inconsequential. Your friend Bart is cheating
and wants to know how he can weasel out of the situation. I am not going to tell
him to ignore either girl at the expense of the other. And I wouldn’t be so
cocky saying “There’s nothing either of them can do to him,” as there is plenty
of things can be done, and have been done over the years. Chopping up his suits
in the wardrobe has been featured in this column many times over in the past.
Bonfires of books. Contacts with wives in the home country have not been
unknown. And of course, there is a certain branch of home surgery with sharpened
scissors and feeding the man’s donated organ to the ducks is also well
documented. There’s lots they can do, and has been done. Don’t be so “cocky” if
I might use a phrase, Petal. You might regret it. I think you need to grow up a
little too, Larry.
Dear Hillary,
I have a great little gal who has been staying with me for about six months.
When I’m away off shore she uses the car to go back to her village and stays
there until I’m due to come back, but lately I kind of get the idea that maybe
she’s not really back with Mom in the village, if you know what I mean. Got any
ideas how can I check her out, but discreetly. I don’t want to get a PI as I
can’t trust any tired old guy to be totally invisible.
Pat from PA
Dear Pat from PA,
This is a common problem Pat my Petal, and really shows that perhaps you have
been too trusting, especially with such a short relationship. Here you are, you
know the girl for six months and “Have the car, darling, I won’t need it for the
next six weeks.” Would you do that with any woman you met only six months ago in
the US? I don’t think so. You men really go out of your way to make problems for
yourselves, don’t you! However, there is a way you can check on where she is
with your car without resorting to getting her followed, as these days you can
find cheap tracking devices you hide in the car which will give you the location
very easily. Perhaps you could look into that. I hope you are not disappointed.
Dear Hillary,
You may find this a strange request, but I am an American interested in Buddhism
and wondered if it would be possible that on my next holiday here I could join a
monastery. I would only have two weeks but imagine that in that time I could at
least get the basics of Buddhism. Is this possible? I don’t mind where in
Thailand that I would go as I am interested in the study, not the geography or
tourism side. I have always been impressed watching the orange robes going along
the streets with their alms bowls in the mornings.
Wesley
Dear Wesley,
There is no such thing as “strange requests” in Hillary’s letter box these days!
I think I’ve seen them all. Now, to yours. If you want to understand the basics
of Buddhism, you have to start long before you get on the plane to come to
Thailand. To begin with, have you looked to see if there is a Buddhist temple in
your region in the US? Discussions with the monks there will assist you in your
quest. Monks in America can generally all speak English, while in the temples
here, they naturally speak Thai and you would be lucky to find someone fluent in
your language.
I would recommend that you get the following books before going much further,
Buddhism Explained (ISBN 974-7047-28-4) by Khantipalo Bhikkhu, Phra Farang, An
English Monk in Thailand by Phra Peter Pannapadipo, (ISBN 974-202-019-1) and The
Good Life. A guide to Buddhism for the Westerner by Gerald Roscoe (ISBN
974-8206-56-4). Read these before ordering the saffron robes, Petal.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in
Pattaya
The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3: US/ UK, Crime/ Drama/ Thriller –
Denzel Washington plays a New York City subway dispatcher who’s day is
thrown into chaos by an audacious crime: the hijacking of a subway
train. The criminal mastermind, played by John Travolta, is the leader
of a highly-armed gang of four who threatens to execute the train’s
passengers unless a large ransom is paid within one hour. I found it a
thoroughly engrossing and exciting film, and a satisfying dramatic
experience – everything Public Enemies tried for and failed to
achieve. A reworking of the 1974 film. Rated R in the US for violence
and pervasive language. Mixed or average reviews.
G-Force: US, Action/ Adventure/ Fantasy (CGI & Live Action) – About
a team of trained secret agent guinea pigs that takes on a mission for
the US government: to stop a diabolical billionaire who plans to take
over the world with household appliances. The guinea pigs discover that
the fate of the world is in their paws. From Walt Disney.
17 Again: US, Comedy – A mild comedy about redoing life over again
from high school, and generally making the same mistakes again. Has
just enough of the charm of Zac Efron to result in a harmless,
pleasurable teen comedy. Mixed or average reviews.
Public Enemies: US, Action/ Crime/ Drama/ History/ Thriller – With
Johnny Depp as the criminal John Dillinger and Christian Bale as G-man
Melvin Purvis in this Great Depression-era drama about the FBI’s
attempts to shut down a crime wave. I think it’s a mess, albeit a
brilliant mess, and I don’t want to unnecessarily discourage you from
seeing it, because it offers many pleasures. It’s an impeccably crafted
film, with some fine performances, vast attention to period detail, an
innovative use of high-definition video instead of film, and a
fascinating era recreated. Still, it’s a hodge-podge in my opinion, and
doesn’t gel into anything coherent.
My biggest complaint about the film is that we seem to be expected to
know and understand the characters before going to see the film,
perhaps because it is taken more or less from history. But as a film,
it could have introduced and developed the many secondary characters
more to help us understand them better – those of us who know little
about Dillinger, his life, or Agent Purvis and the early years of the
FBI. Generally favorable reviews.
Dear Galileo: Thai, Comedy/ Drama – A pleasant enough diversion
about two Thai girls on their own in Europe – low-keyed and low-powered,
slow and meandering. From Nithiwat Tharathorn, one of the “Fan Chan
Six” – one of the six neophyte directors who collaborated while in
University on what is probably the most enchantingly delightful Thai
film ever, Fan Chan (My Girl). Here he continues his
examination of students in love as two teenage girls backpack for a year
in London, Paris, and Rome. Filmed on location.
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince: US/ UK, Adventure/ Fantasy/
Mystery/ Romance – This, the latest and darkest Harry Potter episode,
set a new worldwide opening day box office record, with an astounding
one-day global box office gross of more than $104 million. Generally
favorable reviews.
I think it’s a dazzling film with brilliant cinematography, fantastic
effects, and moments of emotional power. But I think you’ll find it
incoherent unless you’re a close follower of the previous films, or have
immersed yourself in the books. If not, large sections of the film will
make absolutely no sense whatsoever. If you’ve read the book, you can
plug the plot holes with what you know. Otherwise, all the characters
seem to know things the audience is never privy to.
And you’ll also be at a disadvantage if you have problems with
rapid-fire British accents, particularly lower class Ron Weasley’s. And
also Hermione, who seems hell-bent on blurting out whole speeches in as
few nanoseconds as possible.
This movie sends shivers up and down your spine even before it begins!
The moment the Warner Bros. logo appears you’re overwhelmed with
foreboding – never have I seen a logo with more menace to it. And then
comes the fantastic opening sequence of a world being attacked by random
terror. This opening part has been filmed in IMAX 3D, and I do want to
see it at the IMAX theater in Bangkok, if just for this sequence alone.
Thick as Thieves / The Code: US/ Germany, Crime – A master thief
recruits a younger crook to help him steal two famous Faberge eggs.
With Morgan Freeman and Antonio Banderas. Generally savagely poor
reviews with a few which say it’s an OK time-waster. Rated R in the US
for sexuality, language, and some nudity.
Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs: US, Animation/ Comedy – If you
enjoyed the previous two installments, you should like this one as
well. Mixed or average reviews.
|
