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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald MBMG International Ltd.
False Promises - then and now, part 1
Continued concerns regarding the credit crisis and recession
continue to run amok. The Dow put in its record high of 14,164.53 back on
October 9, 2007. Recently, it has been down well below 7,500. This is a
reduction of nearly fifty percent in less than two years.
For some perspective on the magnitude of the current bear
market, the attached chart illustrates that, at this stage, the current
correction has been by far the most severe correction in the post-World War II
era and the second most severe correction since 1900. The only correction that
was down more at this stage was the correction that began in 1929.
Given that more and more people are saying they see light at the end of the
trouble, let’s visit that time with famous ‘Crash’ quotes:
- “We will not have any more crashes in our time.” - John Maynard Keynes in 1927
- “I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living
in a fool’s paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily
diminish and recede in the near future.” - E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York
Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
- “There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity.” - Myron E.
Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
- “No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of
the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the
present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment ... and
the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace,
the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding.” - Calvin Coolidge December
4, 1928
- “There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a
crash.” - Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
- “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do
not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels,
such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal
higher within a few months.” - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
- “This crash is not going to have much effect on business.” - Arthur Reynolds,
Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
- “There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of
another comparable decline.” - Arthur W. Loasby, President of the Equitable
Trust Company, quoted in the New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
- “We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can
afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices.” -
Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in the New York Times, Friday, October
25, 1929
- “This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the
late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke.
Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic.
Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to
be reached again in many years.” - R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in
the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
- “Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted.” - E. A. Pearce
market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
- “Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have
a panic - which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom.” - R. W.
McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
- “The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services... America
is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former
great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we
now have three more years to go before the tailspin.” - Stuart Chase, American
economist and author, NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929
All of this sound familiar? Please note that the Dow did not bottom out until
mid-1932. Maybe we should look back further in history: “The national budget
must be balanced. The public debt must be reduced; the arrogance of the
authorities must be moderated and controlled. Payments to foreign governments
must be reduced, if the nation doesn’t want to go bankrupt.” - Cicero (106 BC -
43 BC), 55 BC.
Continued next week…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]@mbmg-international.com.comm.com.com
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Painterly
photographs
Ducks by Ernie Kuehnelt
Take a look at the photo of the two ducks this week. It was taken in Sri
Lanka by a very enthusiastic amateur Ernie Kuehnelt. The final image is
intriguing, with the tree in the right of the picture actually being a
reflection, and the upper left of the photograph looking like an oil
painting.
So was this something done by Photoshop? A tricky “painting” filter? Or
what? The simple answer is that Ernie took this photograph after looking
critically through the viewfinder. The site was beside a lake. The
greenery is the far bank, reflected in the water, whilst the tree
branches in the foreground were actually over his head and also
reflected in the water (look at the black bird, correct way up at the
top right hand corner, and upside down in the reflected image).
 Woman
by Man Ray
Now Ernie did not go to this lake with this picture in his mind, he went
there to photograph the general scene and then saw the ducks in nature.
However, when looking at the ducks he also found that there was always a
black bird associated with them. His next thought was to get both the
ducks and the black bird together, and while composing the shot noticed
the reflections of the far bank were being altered by the ripples in the
water producing a painterly effect. Around three frames further on, he
managed to get ducks, black bird, reflections and the tree to produce
this wonderfully evocative image.
The message here is to keep filming if you can see that something is
evolving. With digital photography you don’t have to factor in the cost
of developing and processing. Digital photography gives you “free”
images, so throw away the old ‘film’ thinking and keep improving the
image. So many times I have seen photographers take one shot and then
move on, losing the opportunity to capture something really good.
True story, I was running classes for amateurs many years ago in my
studio. One chap wanted to produce a surreal image, so we produced a set
where a bed was placed on its side and fixed to a side wall, making it
appear, however, as if it were standing on the floor. A model stood
beside it, but on the real horizontal floor, which was then made to look
like the side wall, complete with a window frame set in it. This took
several hours to make and the amateur photographer was very impressed
with this surreal Rene Magritte style of scene. When you looked at it,
was the bed on its side, or was the woman floating above the bed? All
sorts of psychological conundrums emanated from this.
The chap loaded his camera and took one shot. Yes, one miserable frame!
He then said, “Could we do another one using tables and chairs?”
Man Ray was an early surrealist photographer, and the second photograph
this week is one of Man Ray’s favorite models. Here he has taken a
negative and reversed it several times resulting in whites that are
black and blacks that are white. However, the way it is viewed, the hair
is defying gravity. Is she falling, or is the hair being blown upwards?
Photography that makes the viewer think, and think again, the trade mark
of the surrealists.
It is a fairly easy one to produce yourself, even by turning the camera
upside down, you will get images that seem to be ‘strange’ in some way
when you turn the final image the correct way up.
There is so much more to photography than one frame per subject!
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Cardiac unit diet - fast weight loss?
I have published this “diet” before, and those who have stuck
it out claim that the weight loss is spectacular. It is not strictly a
“diet”; it is more correctly a “weight loss” program.
I first got wind of this program after I noticed a friend of mine had
dropped some weight. “Fifteen kilos in two months,” was his proud reply. He
had done this by following a “diet” - and one that had obviously worked!
This is put forward as a seven day diet, and although I am not always in
favor of ‘crash’ diets, this one does merit some study. It is reputedly from
Sacred Heart Memorial Hospital and is used in their cardiac care unit for
overweight patients to lose weight prior to surgery.
It states the first no-no’s as being bread, alcohol, soft drinks, fried food
or oil. Agree totally, though probably half of you have already decided it’s
too hard!
After that there is a concoction called Fat-Burning Soup (FBS) which you
make up and keep in the fridge. You gobble FBS any time you feel hungry and
have as much as you want. You are also advised to drink plenty of water
suggesting 6-8 glasses a day along with tea, coffee, skim milk, unsweetened
juice or cranberry juice.
The physiology of hunger works that when the stomach is empty, messages are
sent to the brain to send down food. Fill the belly with non-fattening food
and the hunger pangs will be less, but the weight does not go on.
Here is the recipe for the Fat-Burning Soup:
4 cloves garlic
2 large cans crushed tomatoes (810gms)
2 large cans beef consommé
1 packet vegetable packet soup
1 bunch spring onions
1 bunch celery
2 cans French beans (or fresh)
2 green capsicum
1 kg carrots
10 cups water
Chop all veggies into small pieces. Boil rapidly for 10 minutes stirring
well and then simmer until veggies are tender. Add water if necessary to
make a thinner soup.
Now the other downside to dieting is food boredom. A week of FBS, water and
cranberry juice will sap the resolve of most overweight people, so what this
diet does is allow you to add different items on a daily basis. Here are the
suggestions.
Day 1, any fruit except bananas. Eat only soup and fruit today.
Day 2, all vegetables. Eat as much as you like of fresh, raw or canned
vegetables. Try to eat green leafy vegetables. Stay away from dry beans,
peas, and corn. Eat vegetables along with soup. At dinner reward yourself
with a jacket potato and butter.
Day 3, eat all the soup, fruit and veggies you want today. Don’t have the
jacket potato today. If you have not cheated you should have lost approx 3
kg. (If that is so, it is an amazing loss in three days - but keep going
anyway!)
Day 4, bananas and skim milk. Eat at least 3 large bananas and drink as much
skim milk as you can today. Eat as much soup as you want. Bananas are high
in calories and carbohydrates, as is the milk but you will need the
potassium and carbohydrates today.
Day 5, beef and tomatoes. You may have 600 gm of beef or chicken (no skin)
and as many as 6 tomatoes. Eat soup at least once.
Day 6, beef and vegetables. Eat to your hearts content of beef and veggies.
You can even have 2-3 steaks (grilled) if you like with leafy green
vegetables. No baked potato. Be sure to eat soup at least once.
Day 7, brown rice, vegetables, fruit juice. Be sure to eat well and eat as
much soup as you can.
By the end of day 7, if you have not cheated, you should have lost 7 kg. The
theory is good, but I caution against losing too much, too soon.
If your weight loss needs are greater than 7 kg, then continue for another
week, but I do not recommend much further than two weeks at one time, and do
not repeat the program within three months.
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
You mentioned the misspelling of a word in my previous missive. I was told many
years ago by my wise mother that excellent spelling capability was not a
proud-worthy accomplishment, as it merely illustrated the writer’s lack of
imagination and ability for original thought. Anyway, it only proves you have a
better “spell checker” on your PC. So, Madam, having proved an indisputable
point I move on.
Now, my mother. She was a formidable, solidly built rather robust lady of 120
kilos, with the stentorian voice of a sergeant major and bred from a long line
of cavalry officers. How the procreation process was managed with her is hard to
conceive. I can image my father, a short softly spoken puny type of man,
standing there and my mother issuing instructions in a horse parade ground
fashion - “That man, come to attention. Get mounted. Advance. Proceed at a trot.
Now gallop. Charge!! Halt. Retreat. Dismount. DissssMISS.”
But I digress. Volunteers to monitor the aforementioned next door lady’s
disgusting exhibitionism are no longer required as I have perfected a
telescopic, magnifying periscope and can now lie on my pallet keeping tabs. Will
report any further developments. As I do not understand your reference to a
sprained wrist, can you please explain?
Puritanical Pattaya Parishioner
Dear PPP,
Now I see the cause of all your problems, Petal. My old friend Ziggy (Freud)
would explain it better than me, but your punctuation (which I labored over and
corrected) is if anything, worse than your spelling. This is because of
repressed maternal urges. Do you still have your childhood rocking horse? I
suspect that you do, admit it, my little equine voyeur. Mother would put you
over the horse before administering punishment to your rump with her leather
riding crop, didn’t she! When did you start hating your horse? Or start wearing
leather? I should feel sorry for you, left with all these infantile dilemmas,
but help is at hand. Have you tried psychotherapy? Don’t worry about the wrist,
you’ve got much greater problems than this column can cover. I think you should
read Freud’s story about Little Hans, a young boy who was the subject of an
early but extensive study of castration anxiety, and the Oedipus complex by
Freud. Hans’ neurosis took the shape of a phobia of horses (Equinophobia). Do
you have that too, Petal? Probably do after your traumatic childhood. Freud
wrote a summary of his treatment of Little Hans, in 1909, in a paper entitled
“Analysis of a Phobia in a Five-year-old Boy.” There you are, some bed time
reading, instead of nocturnal spying! In the meantime, double the dose of your
tablets, they are not working well enough.
Dear Hillary,
Who is this Puritanical Pattaya Parishioner? If that’s what’s roaming the place
down there, makes me glad I’m in Chiang Mai. We’ve got enough weird people up
here, without loonies like him.
Chiang Mai Champion
Dear CMC,
He’s started something, hasn’t he? However, this week’s letter has shown us the
real reason behind it all. A classical Oedipus complex, with a horse thrown in
for good measure. Don’t worry, after he gets his oats regularly, he’ll be fine.
Dear Hillary,
I have a real problem, which I hope you can help me with. Even if you can’t,
then just by publishing this letter it may help, because the people who are
producing this problem do not seem to know it exists but I know they read your
column! Let me explain, dear Hillary. Everyone I know around me seems to have no
idea of what time is about. Meetings that are supposed to last for two hours
drag on for three because the people in the meeting can’t get there on time. You
make an appointment to go to lunch or dinner and the other person shows up an
hour late. You go to an appointment and get there on time to find the person you
are meeting hasn’t come back to the office yet because they were late for the
earlier meeting they were going to. If I did precious little all day it would be
fine, but I have plenty of things to do and sitting twiddling my thumbs isn’t
one of them. What do you suggest Hillary?
Tempus Fugit
Dear Tempus Fugit,
You have my sympathies. Watches are cheap and plentiful in this country, but the
ability to actually tell the time seems to have been lost by many of the locals.
I used to have a friend who was woefully late everywhere. After putting up with
his terminal tardiness I invited him to dinner at a restaurant at 7.30. When he
had not shown up by 7.45 I ordered my meal and by the time he arrived, full of
apologies as usual at 8.30, I had finished my meal. I left him the “Check Bin”
and went home immediately. He has never been late since. What I suggest is that
when appointments are made you stress the fact that you will be on time and will
wait 15 minutes only - and do it! But lots of luck, Petal!
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in
Pattaya
Drag Me to Hell: US, Horror/ Thriller – Director Sam Raimi
started out making perversely entertaining horror fare like the Evil
Dead movies before helming blockbusters like Spider-Man.
Well he’s back, and in outstanding B-movie form. Alison Lohman stars as
a loan officer who becomes the victim of a curse, with evil spirits on
her trail and certain damnation in her future – unless she can break the
spell. Drag Me to Hell is a wickedly good time: blood-curdlingly
scary and ghoulishly funny, it’s also taut and timely. It’s the
best-reviewed horror film in years. Reviews: Universal acclaim.
Blood: The Last Vampire: Hong Kong/ Japan, Action/ Horror – A remake
of the 2000 movie of the same name. A vampire who is part of a covert
government agency that hunts and destroys demons in a post-WWII Japan is
inserted into a military school to discover which one of her classmates
is a demon is disguise. Rated R in the US for strong bloody
stylized violence.
Terminator Salvation: The Future Begins: US/ UK, Action/ Sci-Fi –
Primarily for action junkies and gamers. With Christian Bale, Moon
Bloodgood, and Common; directed by McG. In this fourth installment of
The Terminator film franchise, set in post-apocalyptic 2018,
Christian Bale stars as a man fated to lead the human resistance against
Skynet and its army of Terminators. If you’ve seen any of the other
three installments of this series, you know what to expect: Plenty of
chases, explosions, and great effects. Mixed or average reviews.
2022 Tsunami: Thai, Action/ Disaster – By controversial Thai
filmmaker Toranong Sricher. Here’s his synopsis: “Thailand 2022. …All
life is swept away in an enormous tidal wave, the land is destroyed, and
the only way to survive now is to battle nature itself.” Up to you.
Night at the Museum 2: Escape From the Smithsonian: USA/ Canada,
Action/ Comedy – If you liked the first adventure, you’re sure to like
this one even more – bigger, better, and with fantastic special
effects. After a wacky night at the New York Museum of Natural History,
the perpetually hapless Larry (Ben Stiller) must infiltrate the
Smithsonian after some of his resurrected friends were shipped to
Washington for storage. He finds himself in the middle of a vast
conflict between many of the museum’s most noteworthy historical
figures, so in part it’s a mild history lesson, mixed in with the
foolishness. Mixed or average reviews.
Krasue vs. Pop / Kra Seu Fad Pop: Thai, Horror/ Comedy – A fight
between two of Thailand’s most feared female ghosts, both played by
pretty young actresses. Krasue is a flying vampiric head that trails
its entrails around. Pop is a demonic spirit that likes to eat people’s
livers. Shown in Thai only with no English subtitles.
Angels & Demons: US, Crime/ Drama/ Mystery/ Thriller – A tight,
taut thriller. The team behind the global phenomenon The Da Vinci
Code returns for this highly anticipated follow-up, based on the
bestselling novel by Dan Brown. Tom Hanks reprises his role as Harvard
symbologist Robert Langdon, who once again finds that forces with
ancient roots are willing to stop at nothing, even murder, to advance
their goals. Ron Howard again directs. The film has been written as a
sequel to follow after events in The Da Vinci Code. Mixed or
average reviews.
Bangkok Adrenaline: Thai, Action/ Adventure – An English-language,
Thai action-comedy created by and mostly starring Western foreigners,
many of them stunt professionals, in a story about four deadbeat
expatriates trying to survive in Bangkok after getting in debt to local
gangsters. Shot entirely in Thailand and filmed in English, mostly, but
shown here dubbed in Thai, with no English subtitles.
Star Trek (2009): US/ Germany, Sci-Fi/ Action – All new! I think
it’s a great deal of fun, for fans of the series, and also for those who
are not. This much-anticipated film is a reboot of the series, going
back to the series’ ’60s roots by depicting the formative experiences of
the legendary heroes Kirk and Spock. The young James Tiberius Kirk is a
wild Iowa boy whose father sacrificed himself at the helm of a spaceship
at the very moment he was being born. He is convinced to attend the
Starfleet Academy and join the crew of the Enterprise.
Headed for the same destination is Spock, with a troubled background as
a half-human, half-Vulcan. How these two very opposite figures become
mutually trusted colleagues is the basic story of the film. It’s very
well done, and I found it engrossing. Reviews: Universal acclaim.
X-Men Origins: Wolverine: US/ Australia, Action/ Fantasy – Though
most reviews are lukewarm, I think it’s simply brilliant, and a superb
action film for anyone who likes the genre. Stay for two very short
additional scenes during the closing credits, one of which, in a bar in
Japan, is a lead-in to the sequel. Mixed or average reviews.
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