|
Money matters: Why you should invest in Commodities
Part 2
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
One billion people live in the developed world and, out
of the remaining five billion, over two billion live in two countries –
India and China. These two nations are playing catch up with the West
and need as many commodities as they can get their hands on– especially
oil. And as more and more of a middle class emerges from these
developing countries, then the same can be said for cotton, sugar,
wheat, coffee and precious and basic metals.
It is not just the creation of a middle class. It is also those who
aspire to join it. In the last fifteen years over 300 million Chinese
have moved to the coastal regions of China (that is the population of
the USA). They have done so in the hope of finding jobs. More
importantly, they’ve left behind the agrarian society that contributed
so much to keeping the country going and are now taking as opposed to
giving. For both China and India, the daily consumption of food is only
going to rise as more and more people can afford to pay the prices of
better food. So, more and more people eating better than they have ever
done, looking for jobs in the cities as industry continues to expand
using up what metals and energy they can whilst at the same time there
are less and less people to produce the food. If this does not point to
a continued bull market for the next ten or fifteen years then I do not
know what does.
As David Fuller of Fullermoney said, “With approximately one billion
people in the developed world and another five billion in developing
countries, the largest of which are scrambling to increase GDP and the
standard of living for their burgeoning populations, it is not difficult
to envisage a steepening demand curve for all resources, many of which
are finite.”
As stated above, another thing to consider is that most things are
cyclical. Over recent times we have lived in a low inflation market.
This is no longer the case. Banks all over the world continue to print
money at ridiculous rates. Supply is going up through the roof and this
excess liquidity has to find a home somewhere. When inflation is around
then it usually ends up in commodities as they are one thing that are
considered to be finite and cannot be increased as and when someone
wants them to.
For the short term, banks will continue to print money. If they don’t
then the USD48 trillion debt of the United Sates will become even more
of a problem and could lead the world into a major depression. The
problem is that printing money makes debt look less harrowing. Due to
inflation, the money you owe today via loans, mortgages or credit cards
will feel like it is a lot less in five or ten years time. So, inflation
is another reason to invest in commodities and protect your wealth at
the same time.
Whilst there is no doubt that commodities have under-performed other
asset classes over the last twenty years it is still a fact that over
the last 45 years they outperformed both equities and bonds and, more
importantly, with less volatility than shares (University of Yale –
2005).
In conclusion, this is not as good as it gets and, without doubt, the
best is yet to come. However, this does come with a health warning. If
the US consumer does precipitously slow down his spending in the latter
half of 2006, this will lead to an inevitable slowdown in China and
other emerging markets.
Commodity investments will be affected by this, which will present a
great buying opportunity to buy these assets at cheaper prices, for the
growth in China and the likes of is not a one year story but one that we
are going to see played our for the next ten or more years. Research
from Macquarie shows that even if China were to slow down from current
growth rates it is still likely to account for 30% plus of world demand
by the end of the decade.
Why else should you consider commodities? Well for a start you do not
need to place so much faith in funds or the management of companies. All
you need to do is pick up the paper every so often and see what is being
used and what is not. Given this situation, it really does make sense to
have at least 10% of your portfolio in commodities – some say even as
much as a third of it. Fuel and metals have led the way in the revival
and will continue to do well but others such as cotton, wheat. Etc.,
have not increased as much and this is a superb chance for someone to
take advantage of this now. If one adjusts for inflation, grains have
not been so cheap since Nelson beat the French at Battle of the Nile in
1798. Why not follow Nelson and grasp the opportunity whilst you can?
|
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept
any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any
responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not
taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
|
Snap Shots: Going Glam
by Harry Flashman
 What
is the most popular photographic subject of all time? Hands up all of
you who said “girls”. Correct again! And that includes you, doesn’t it!
Actually there have been more books written about “How to Photograph
Girls” than any other photographic texts. What’s more, photographers
have been snapping girls since we first managed to record blurry images
on Daguerre’s sensitized glass plates.
However, unless you are careful, you will end up with shots that are far
from glamorous, and are disappointing for both the subject and the
cameraman. The answer lies in following some simple rules which will
make your lady look glam, so much so you will want enlargements of the
very ‘professional’ result.
Let’s start with the basic pose. The first rule with all amateur models
is to get your subject to relax. (Note I refer in this article to
amateur models. Professional ones know which poses to adopt, and which
poses make them look the best. That is why professional models are
expensive!)
Now, if your favorite lady is standing rigidly to attention in front of
the camera, I can guarantee that the end result will not be pleasing.
When photographing Thai people in particular, it is even more important
to get them relaxed and happy, as they tend to “stand to attention” with
arms held straight at their sides, looking as if they are on army
parade. The other favorite position is to place thumb and forefinger
under the chin, which does not look glamorous, but rather looks faintly
ridiculous.
I have found that it helps to have an album of different poses cut from
magazines, adverts, etc., and show this to your subject. When the sitter
knows what “look” you are trying to achieve, it makes it easier all
round.
The pose to avoid at all costs is the subject straight on to the camera.
This is unfortunately the commonest pose – but it is the worst as far as
looking attractive is concerned.
Here’s what to do to get over this problem. Simply. Sit your lady in a
chair, and then turn it 45 degrees away from the straight ahead
position. Now ask her to slowly turn her head and look at the end of
your camera’s lens. Now you look through your viewfinder – see? It looks
better already, doesn’t it!
Now ask her to gently raise the shoulder closest to the camera and
smile. Guess what? You are starting to get a glamorous image.
Now get her to slightly bend the neck to move her chin down towards the
body, so that she has to look slightly upwards with her eyes at the
camera. This makes the eyes look large and enticing.
That basic pose can be modified by turning to the left as well as to the
right, shoulders up or down, open mouthed smile or shy grin. Each shot
will have a different look.
For these sort of portraits you do need to make the subject’s head fill
the viewfinder. Keep the top of the hair just inside the top edge of the
viewing area and the lower edge should just keep the shoulders in the
frame. In other words, walk in close. The best lens for this is around
135 mm, if you have a choice. This focal length is even known as a
‘portrait’ lens.
Lighting is the next important factor in producing that romantic glamor
portrait. The trick here is to use gentle, soft lighting to avoid harsh
and unflattering shadows. One super little trick to take shadows away
from under the chin, nose and eyes is to open out a newspaper and place
it in the sitter’s lap. The reflected light will gently lessen the dark
shadows.
Another trick used by the professional glamour photographers is to “back
light” the subject and then reflect light back into the face with gold
foil reflectors. The gold imparts a very “warm” and flattering color to
the skin. The reflector will also be picked up as small highlights in
the eyes, which gives sparkle and an “alive” feeling to the portrait.
Modern Medicine: A stent in time…
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
The advances in cardiac surgery have been enormous over the
past 20 years. We have gone from some fairly primitive high-risk surgery, to
some very, very sophisticated interventional techniques, which have given
cardiac patients a new lease of life. In fact, if the techniques that are
available now were able to be carried out 30 years ago, my father would in
all probability still be alive today.
However, before getting into modern life-saving techniques, a short review
of cardiac pathology is in order. Myocardial infarction is the common cause
of cardiac muscle death, and finally ours. (Make that “yours” as I don’t
want it!)
The heart muscle is supplied with oxygenated blood by its own system of
arteries. The heart does not get its oxygen from the blood in its chambers
which is being pumped around. Instead, there is a network of ‘heart’
arteries (called the coronary arteries) which supply the cardiac muscle. If
any of these get blocked, this is known as a “stenosis” or an “occlusion”,
which in turn can bring on the coronary “conclusion”! This is the death of
the muscle, called “infarction”.
The blockage is most often caused by Cholesterol, which gets deposited on
the inside wall of the arteries and is called “plaque”, and then red cells
stick on the surface of the deposit and it builds up from there. If you have
a 50 percent stenosis, you will start to get chest pains on exercise. If you
have a 100 percent stenosis, you may drop dead during the exercise.
To correct this problem, the only way we knew was to carry out an open heart
operation, replace the blocked coronary arteries with vessels taken from
other parts of the body, usually veins from the leg. However, now we can
leave your arteries where they are, but do something to relieve the
stenosis, or blockage. This is called “Angioplasty”.
One way is to send an inflatable balloon to dilate the blocked area, and
this is known as coronary balloon angioplasty. It is more formally known as
percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA): percutaneous meaning
“through the skin,” transluminal meaning “inside the blood vessel,” coronary
meaning “related to the heart,” and angioplasty meaning “blood vessel
repair.”
Angioplasty involves creating space in the blocked artery by inserting and
inflating a tiny balloon, which compresses some of the blocking plaque
against the arterial wall. When the balloon is deflated and removed, the
plaque still remains compressed, clearing a space in the artery and
improving blood flow. While angioplasty does not always completely clear an
artery, more than 90 percent of all procedures are immediately successful.
There are other techniques available, and the most common is by using
“stents”. This is called percutanous coronary intervention (PCI). The
success in today’s cardiac surgery is due in part to the increased use of
these tiny wire mesh tubes called stents, which cardiologists began using in
the 1990s to help keep arteries open following angioplasty. About 70 to 90
percent of all angioplasty patients receive a stent, which is inserted
permanently at the site of the blockage.
Stents can be used in a number of ways with angioplasty procedures. A stent
may be inserted during an original angioplasty to prevent possible arterial
collapse and lower the chance of heart attack and re-narrowing of the artery
(called re-stenosis). A stent also may be inserted during a second
angioplasty to prevent recurrent restenosis. Stents can also be used in the
unlikely event that an artery is injured by the catheter. Experienced
doctors are able to install stents in one or more arteries with a high
probability of success.
The use of stents has decreased the abrupt and unpredictable closure of an
artery, which necessitated emergency coronary bypass surgery. Studies show
stents are better than angioplasty alone in preventing re-stenosis, which is
one of the most common problems associated with angioplasty.
Evidence suggests that angioplasty patients are doing better today because
doctors are better able to target blockages, by using such techniques as the
64 Slice CT, so your interventionist is able to pinpoint the blockage with
greater accuracy. However, we will deal with the 64 Slice CT technology
another time.
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
How can I express my shock and amazement over your apparent revelation last
week (Fri, 21st April), that you are a part time Dominatrix? I read this
into your answer to Charles where you warned him that this was one of your
B&D weeks, i.e. “I agree though, you certainly do need help, but I doubt if
you’d like the rubber room and the funny sleeveless tight jacket. Best to
steer clear of me till next week.”
When I think of how that shocked me, one of your most ardent and admiring
fans, it made me laugh to think of the fear it must have inspired in that
eternal promiser Mr Singha.
I love your column Hillary but I hope that if I ever manage to bump into you
personally it wont be on your B&D week. Keep up your brilliantly caustic and
funny answers, it’s worth opening the ‘Mail’ site for you alone, though the
other contributors are good too.
David, Western Australia
Dear David,
I am so pleased to read that my column has found its way to the sandy
deserts of Western Australia, but I am sorry you appear to be exhibiting
some strange and upside-down thinking, Petal. Probably because you are
living down-under, I imagine. Dominatrix? B&D weeks? Just where did you get
that from? I am glad to see you have never been inside a mental hospital,
because that is where they have the rubber rooms and the straight-jackets! I
agree with you where you wrote “I read this into your answer…” Keep reading,
David, but be careful when you read things “into” my answers. You might end
up pulling the wrong leg. Thanks for the nice words, but next time attach
them to a bottle of that rather nice Margaret River wine you have down
there. See, there’s a fact not everybody knows – Hillary does drink
something other than French champagne, and it took you to extract that
information from me. Unwillingly, as you can see!
Dear Hillary,
Your last week’s column was interesting and real. I have been visiting
Thailand for 17 years, 2-3 times every year and have seen how stupid and
arrogant so many farangs can be, even farangs who visit Pattaya yearly,
don’t respect locals. Partly of this, Pattaya has a bad reputation in
Europe. I am now married with a Thai Lady, we met in Pattaya a few years
ago, and are now staying together in Finland but every year still visiting
Thailand. For me it is still so exciting to visit The Land of Smiles. All
the best to you Hillary.
Aarno and Mrs. Yupa
Dear Arno and Mrs Yupa,
Thank you for the letter and the nice words. Yes, the truth was certainly
there with the letter from the gentleman who called himself “Happy Camper”.
It sounds as if you too are another happy camper, and I am very happy for
you, even though I doubt if I would be a very happy camper living in cold
Finland. If we all learned to respect one another, the world would be a
better place.
Dear Hillary,
I recently visited your country to have some cosmetic surgery and while I
was there had a little holiday as well. I enjoyed the countryside, but the
cities I did not enjoy. They were too crowded, too noisy and Chiang Mai and
Pattaya seemed to be full of older males with some very young girls. This is
something that would not happen in their home countries, so why do they do
it in Thailand? I find it quite disgusting to see some lovely young girls
helping men 60 years older than they are. Surely there comes a time when the
men in the world have to stop the need for conquest. As someone who lives
there in Thailand, can you explain what goes on with these old fools,
Hillary? They must realize that the liaison will not last forever.
Helen
Dear Helen,
Firstly, I am glad you enjoyed the countryside, and I hope the cosmetic
surgery went well too. However, before you throw too many stones at
octogenarians, I think you should stop awhile and think just why you had
your surgery done. Did it make you feel better about yourself? Did it make
you more attractive? Did it make you look younger? I am sure it was all of
those things and more. Now to our old men. Having a young lady on their arm
must make them feel they are younger too. It probably makes them feel better
about themselves too. Now, as far as how long the liaison will last, does it
really matter? They are 80 years old and must be in the finishing straight
themselves. What a lovely thought that a delightful young lady is there to
look after them. What happened to these older men’s previous partners? Died?
Ran off? Had cosmetic surgery and picked up a younger man? There can be many
reasons why they are in Thailand and unattached (and with money to spend).
If they spend that money on company for their last few years, is there
something wrong with this? As I wrote to Arno, if we all learned to respect
one another, the world would be a better place. I think you should think
about that, Helen.
A Female Perspective: A Different Tune
with Sharona Watson
Emily Segal, mother, professional musician
and training teacher, plays the piano with quite extraordinary brilliance.
She happens to have a ‘Steinway Grand’ in the front room of her very
comfortable house in New Cross, London, which when rightly induced, gives
off just about the purest sound you could ever wish to hear. Emily’s fingers
move like hummingbird’s wings across the keys, with almost blinding speed
and a level of assured confidence and absolute precision which can only come
from endless hours of practice. She makes it look easy and her face broadens
into a contagious smile as she plays. Does she have a special talent? Well,
I am sure she does, but it’s a talent that would shine far less brightly
without the six hours a day, seven days a week practice. I listened for
quite a long and very peaceful time. I still couldn’t believe that she was
going to be a teacher. Lucky students, I suppose.
 Emily
Segal: Doing it.
Last week, Emily was telling us about her passion and her culture. This
week, I wanted to discover more about how she felt from a female
perspective. In her line of work, I wondered, was there a history of
equality? Her response was almost immediate and took me a little by
surprise; “Did you know that in German opera houses, in female singers’
contracts, there used to be a clause stating that three days before their
period and for its duration, they should not be made to work! It’s because
they were aware that to get up on stage to sing a four hour opera, under
those circumstances, was really asking a lot. Of course, that clause has
gone now!” Well isn’t that interesting? I must say, I seem to sing (or
shout) louder when it’s ‘my time’.
Both Emily and her husband Peter Selwyn – affectionately known as ‘Krapfen
Gesicht’ to his friends, apparently due to his uncontrollable love of
doughnuts and other confectionery – are in great demand professionally, so
what happens when they’re both wanted at the same time? I mean, if you’re
both working, who is going to look after the children? “Well, that’s one of
the reasons I’m becoming a teacher full-time, because it doesn’t work,”
replied Emily, honestly. “For instance, Pete’s away working in Germany for
three months at the moment, then he’s away in France for three months so
it’s a good question; what happens when I have to go to Spain for a month?
(Musicians are seemingly always on the move) Unless you’re going to have a
full-time nanny or someone else to look after them, it doesn’t work. But
children need stability as well.”
In such circumstances, it appears that it’s Emily’s career that goes ‘on
hold’. Does she feel any resentment about this? “Yes. I think it often
happens to women, although it shouldn’t. It tends to be a woman who will
feel that kind of responsibility more. Although my husband probably feels
the responsibility of earning a living more than I do, I certainly feel
responsibility towards bringing up the family. So when it comes to choosing
which one of us is not going off to perform, usually, and it’s the same with
our friends, it’ll be the woman who puts her career ‘on hold’.”
That was all a bit heavy, so I thought we should lighten the mood. Does she
have a favourite piece of music? “Gosh, that’s a hard one. To play? Probably
Mozart’s last piano concerto in B flat major. To listen to? Beethoven’s
String Quartet – the harp. And whilst you’re asking me these questions, the
best football team is Arsenal.” (We laugh because we both know that
Manchester United are.)
So, is Emily ever able to get away? What does she do when she manages to?
“Gardening. Reading. (Thinks) But I think exercise is what I want to do more
of.” (Doesn’t look like she needs it)
Would she be happy leaving her two children (thirteen and eleven) with her
parents for a day or two whilst she just goes and does her own thing? “Yes,
although I find that quite hard, as a woman. It’s fine if I’m working, but I
find it difficult to ask someone to look after my children so I can go and
have a massage, for example. I think a lot of women find it difficult to
say, ‘I’m taking this time for me. This isn’t about the children, this isn’t
about earning money, this isn’t about the house, it’s about me.’ Women seem
to feel they have to justify it. I think women need to turn around more and
say, ‘I need this time’.” Inspiring words.
Emily continued, “Another thing in which women suffer much more than men is
guilt. Especially being a Jewish woman, you just walk around with guilt the
whole time! Everything you do seems to be tinged by it. Whereas take my
husband, for instance. He was about to go away for five weeks and he wanted
to go and watch an Arsenal game with a mate and then spend a couple of days
with him. Now I would have just felt completely guilty. But for my husband I
think, ‘Good for him!’ I asked my husband if he felt guilty and he said,
‘no’ and I envy him that.”
But of course! Her husband knew she was going to be there, looking after
everything! “Yes, but his argument to that and I think he’s right (although
I didn’t use to) is; do it! He says to me, ‘You’re not doing something
because you think it’s too difficult. Why don’t you just do it and let me
work it out?’ And I think women are very bad at just ‘doing it’ although I
do know someone who just presents her husband with a fait-a-complet but I
can’t ring Pete up in the middle of a performance at English National Opera,
and say ‘come home, can I?” (Although it would be funny to try!)
And so it was back to the Steinway for Emily, as she awaited her children’s
return from school. As I bade her, ‘Shalom’ she reaffirmed her commitment to
come and perform in Pattaya around October time. Look out for news of her
and her husband in the Pattaya Mail. I for one, cannot wait.
Next week: Being Popular
[email protected]
|
