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Money matters: The Big Picture …
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
In the global asset allocation game it is easy to get
carried away with all the short-term noise. Those familiar with MBMG
International’s philosophy will be aware of our 3 level approach to core
asset allocation. The second two, business/economic cycles and technical
analysis, are vital to long-term successful asset allocation and
investment returns but getting the first, “big picture”, correct is
what allows certain investment professionals to survive over numerous
market cycles. Investors such as Warren Buffet, George Soros, Richard
Russell and Jim Rogers are good examples and we should listen to their
free advice.
Jim Rogers is regularly on CNBC and has just written a
new book titled “Hot Commodities”. There is no secret where he has his
vast fortune invested at present and he had these recent snippets. “Buy
low and sell high are the only rules. CNBC has no commodity commentators,
which proves that there must be value. There are not enough bright 29 year
olds for 10,000 hedge funds. Copper is dumb and never heard of Alan
Greenspan, but commodity stocks have management, gearing, regulations,
etc., which can distort value.”
Soros and Buffet make no secret of their dislike for
the USD and “The sage of Omaha” reiterated his view that he finds
common stocks expensive at current levels and is not buying any. We concur
that the big picture remains one where the western hemisphere equity bear
market has not finished, all paper currencies have problems and that
trendy hedge fund, whilst a core in any portfolio, warrants caution at
present.
Richard Russell has been publishing his views for many
decades and whilst his short calls can be wayward, there’s a lot in his
current big picture view for everyone.
After the bubble — When the stock market bubble
burst in the year 2000, Greenspan (having watched the bursting of the
Japanese bubble and the deflation in Japan that followed) realized that
the US too could sink into deflation. With the sky-high levels of US debt,
Greenspan realized that deflation in the US would be an unmitigated
disaster. Greenspan decided that the strongest possible measures must be
taken to ward off potential deflation in the US. Thus, the Fed drove short
rates down to generational lows while flooding the system with liquidity.
The Fed’s frantic anti-deflation policy succeeded in
driving both stocks and real estate prices up to “bubble” valuations
(which is where they are today).
Now we’re facing the next chapter in this zany
series. The latest is that the Fed is now openly worried about inflation.
Short rates have been below the inflation rate for months on end (and they
still are), meaning that the money can be borrowed literally on a “no
cost” basis — money is still literally being “given away.”
Realizing that rates must be brought back to something approaching
“normal,” the Fed has been raising short rates at a “measured”
pace.
Amazingly, although short rates have been rising, long
rates have actually been coming down. The rate on the bellwether 10-year
note is now below where it was last September. Thus, the bond market is
clearly unworried by the Fed’s action in boosting short rates. This has
caused bond experts to ask, “Is this the bond market’s way of saying
that we’re heading for recession? What is the bond market ‘thinking’
when bond yields actually decline in the face of a Fed tightening?”
The markets now appear to be at a crossroad. If the Fed
holds off on boosting rates, inflation could heat up, and the twin bubbles
of stocks and real estate could become even more dangerous.
On the other hand, if the Fed raises short rates to the
point of pain (which is what they’ve always done in the past), the US
economy could sink into unmanageable deflation.
In the meantime, an increasing number of “unknowns”
are creeping into the picture. The Iraq war is not turning out the way
Bush and Rumsfeld thought it would. The debts and deficits continue to
build, and the Iraq war is simply making the situation worse. It seems
clear that the war will add at least $100 billion in annual expenses to
the budget, assuming war expenses are even included in the “regular”
budget.
The consumer has become a deepening mystery. Up to now,
US consumer spending (much of it based on rising real estate values) has
gone a long way toward keeping the US economy afloat. But now we hear that
consumer credit in November took its biggest drop since the statistics
were first made available in 1943. Are America’s debt-laden consumers
finally ready to turn stingy? It doesn’t seem likely, but then again —
every excess has its limits.
Staying the course is the most difficult, especially with short-term
pressure, but the most rewarding.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: Pro photography - a case of supply and demand
by Harry Flashman
 At
least once a month I get asked if I know of any professional photographers
in the area that would like to photograph XXX. For “XXX” you can
insert, “shots of my restaurant”, “some fashions we are
producing”, “shots of my girlfriend”, “underwear we want to sell
overseas” and the like.
At least once a month I reply that I don’t know of
any in the area, but if I do stumble across one I will let them know.
Starving people with cameras, who would like to be professionals, are
probably weeping by now, but I’m sorry folks, there’s a reason I
don’t pass on all these great opportunities.
The first reason is that the initial request is usually
trying to get me to do it. I always reply that I haven’t got the time.
Why do I do this? Simply because the average “client” has no idea of
the difficulties associated with professional photography, no idea of the
costs involved, absolutely zero idea of the time it takes, and would be
staggered by the costs of doing it professionally (and properly). In other
words, from my point of view, it isn’t worth the hassle.
The second reason is that I haven’t really got the
time to ‘educate’ these would-be clients as to what professional
photography is really all about, and why 15 years ago, my going rate was
30,000 baht a day, plus film and expenses. It is the old concept of
billing for professional services “For taking the photographs - 3,000
baht. For knowing how to (produce what you want) - 27,000 baht.”
Pro photography is a hard business, believe me. You
have to spend (almost) as much time trying to work out what the client has
in his (or her) mind, as you do to produce the shot. It is no good
producing a stunning jewellery shot on a blue shiny satin background, when
the client has the idea that all his jewellery looks best on red. Even
when you have finally discussed everything with the client, and you
(think) you’ve got the handle on the needs, wants and desires, you can
still be disappointed when you come up with the final transparency. One
client rejected a cover shot for his electronics business catalogue
because by the time I had arranged all his little electronic bits and
pieces the way he had previously told me he wanted (this took two days, by
the way), he had changed his mind and decided that he wanted his 12 month
old daughter sitting in the middle of electronic parts chaos instead. And
always remembering, at all times, that all professional photographs are
‘made’ by the photographer. They don’t just ‘happen’.
There are so many other variables in any shot that many
pro shooters employ a junior whose main function is (other than shifting
furniture) to look over the photographer’s shoulder and see all the
minor details that the pro might have overlooked in his desire to get the
lighting correct for the shot. This includes models who are wearing
clothes with the price tag showing, or food on a plate that has a slight
smear around one side, or a gold watch with a small piece of lint from a
polishing cloth on it.
Even shooting people is fraught with dangers, and I
don’t mean the 9 mm handgun style of shooting. Every person has a
preconceived idea of what they actually look like. Someone with ears that
look like handles on a beer stein does not even see them - until they see
the photograph! Women clients all expect to look glamorous, and never dare
show some ‘crow’s feet’ - even though the client might have a face
like a ploughed field. Animals are worse, as you have probably a 10 second
window of opportunity to get the right shot. Children are even worse, if
that’s possible. The window is 10 nanoseconds!
No, pro photography is demanding and difficult, and like me, you should
refuse all offers of “popping down to the shop and banging off a couple
of shots for a brochure”. It isn’t worth the hassle.
Modern Medicine: The Good News and Bad News - Good and Bad Cholesterol
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
“Cholesterol” rose its (ugly) head as a
‘baddie’ more than 20 years ago. However, to complicate the issue, the news
that Cholesterol was not all bad also filtered out into the public domain around
ten years ago. And so the terrible twins of Good and Bad Cholesterol were born.
Cholesterol is actually a type of fat (that we medico’s
call a ‘lipid’) that the body uses to help build cells and produce certain
hormones. However, we had found that too much Cholesterol in the blood increased
the risk of heart disease, stroke, and coronary artery disease.
The basis for this was described in a scientific body of work
called the Framingham study, to which a Prof. Kannel was associated. I was lucky
enough to attend a lecture given by him in the early 60’s, and I left the
lecture theatre convinced. What happens when there is an excess of circulating
Cholesterol, this blood fat leads to a deposition of chemicals on the inside of
the arteries, which we call ‘plaque’ (which is nothing to do with the smelly
stuff on your teeth that the dentists scrape off). When the plaque deposits get
large, they can block off the artery, or clots can form on the surface of the
plaque, which then get carried into the circulation and produce the strokes and
nasty cardiac events.
So where does the ‘good’ stuff come in? Well, Cholesterol
travels through the blood attached to a protein. This Cholesterol-protein
package is called a lipoprotein and these come in two forms. High density or low
density, depending on how much protein they have in relation to fat.
Lipoproteins with more protein than fat are called High-density lipoproteins
(HDL), while lipoproteins with more fat than protein are called Low-density
lipoproteins (LDL). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol is the so-called
“good” cholesterol and the LDL is the black sheep of the family. It is the
LDL that gets deposited in the arteries, not HDL.
The way HDL works is by removing LDL from the circulation. It
does this by binding with the LDL in the bloodstream and carrying it back to the
liver to be broken down. Consequently, a high level of HDL cholesterol appears
to lower your risk of developing heart disease and stroke.
Now to complicate matters, there is another blood ‘fat’
called Triglycerides, which the body uses to store energy. A high triglyceride
level along with high LDL may be more of a risk for heart disease than only
having a high LDL on its own.
So how do we measure all these different factors? A total
Cholesterol test measures the total amount of Cholesterol in the blood.
Lipoprotein analysis, or a lipoprotein profile, on the other hand, measures
blood levels of total Cholesterol, and then the fractions of LDL Cholesterol,
HDL cholesterol, and finally Triglycerides.
The National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on
Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (now
there’s a mouthful!) which is known as the Adult Treatment Panel III, or ATP
III, recommends fasting lipoprotein analysis every 5 years for all adults age 20
and older. Also, if the total cholesterol level from a (random) non-fasting
sample exceeds 200 mg/dL, or HDL cholesterol is less than 40 mg/dL, the ATP III
recommends repeat testing with a fasting blood sample.
So what should you do? If there are any risk factors for
heart disease, including poor family history, obesity and diabetes, then begin
checking annually. The cost of testing is cheap insurance if you can avoid
coronary artery disease and strokes, surely!
Learn to Live to Learn: Spencer’s Great Idea
with Andrew Watson
An alumnus of the esteemed Campion School in the heart
of Essex, Spencer Bragg is a chirpy, colourful character, fizzing with
zest for life. Despite declaring an inexplicable and undying love for
Arsenal, this diminutive dynamo of a man possesses a rare gift; he
invariably succeeds in enthusing those around him. His energy for
education is palpable. An aficionado of Howard Gardner’s multiple
intelligence (MI) theory I invite you to witness ‘MI’ in action on a
daily basis at St Andrews International School, where Spencer is Leader
of Key Stage 2. Previously at the Regents School, he arrived in Thailand
via Birmingham (UK), the U.S.A. and Cairo. He is blessed with an
adorable family, Kathryn (aka Mrs Bragg) and two boys, Hugo (4) and
Arthur (6
1/2 months).
 Spencer
Bragg with son Hugo, “I feel that there’s an opportunity to create
an interest which might have a big impact on the rest of children’s
lives.”
Spencer’s Great Idea, like many great ideas, is a
simple one. A sports camp. Right here in the Eastern Seaboard. The first
St Andrews Sports Camp runs from Monday July 11 thru Friday July 22,
excluding weekends and is designed for children between the ages of
6-16. I caught up with Spencer one Friday after school was out.
AW: Where did the idea for the camp come from?
SB: The basic idea for the camp came from the fact
that many parents want their children to be fit and healthy. When
we’ve done things in school such as sports days and swimming galas,
we’ve noticed that perhaps the children across the Eastern Seaboard
are not always as fit and athletic as I would expect children of their
age to be. I attribute this mainly to the lifestyle, although there
could be a climate influence - maybe it’s just too hot to go out and
play? - but I also think that many of the neighbourhoods where children
live just don’t have the facilities which encourage them to be out
with their friends, running about after school, after they’ve finished
their homework or during school holidays. I figured it would be really
great if we could increase the children’s exposure to a range of
different activities with a view to trying to promote them choosing some
leisure pursuits as hobbies, which they might hopefully continue beyond
the two week camp. I feel that there’s an opportunity to create an
interest which might have a big impact on the rest of their lives.
AW: How many sports are you offering and who is
delivering them?
SB: We’ve got golf, horse riding, yoga, tennis,
T-ball, life-saving, cycling, football, water polo, dance, basketball,
badminton, table tennis, swimming and an outdoor adventure segment. Oh,
and fishing. Then, there’s an option for “Sports Camp ESL”. The
sports are going to be delivered by professional people, the majority of
whom will be qualified teachers. All the teachers work at St Andrews
International School. There are specialist golf professionals and
stables with a professional equestrian tutor. The teachers are selecting
areas that they are particularly interested in – don’t forget this
is their holiday! – and are ready to share their expertise and
particularly their genuine love for their chosen field. I think one of
the things we would like to impress on the children is that adults are
really interested in these pursuits, which are going to be fun and at
the same time will increase their level of physical fitness.
AW: And they can enjoy all these activities at Rayong
Green Valley?
SB: Yes! Rayong Green Valley offers the facilities
you’d expect from an international school, such as a field, hard court
area and indoor play facility. We have a first class championship golf
course, a beautiful swimming pool and of course, the stables. It’s a
beautiful area where children can go cycling, go for country walks…
AW: What will a typical day look like for a kid?
SB: They arrive between 8 a.m. and 8.30 a.m., lunch
is provided and the day ends at 2.30 p.m. During the day there are three
main sessions of an hour and a half each. Transport is also provided for
those who request it with buses going out to Burapha, Pattaya and the
Ban Chang area.
AW: So you’re hoping to reach out to children from
all over the Eastern Seaboard?
SB: Absolutely! In terms of our school campus, I
think St Andrews has potentially the best natural location anywhere
I’ve seen in Thailand and possibly South-East Asia. Just look at the
beautiful countryside around us! I think it’s something we need to
celebrate!
AW: Are all the facilities you mentioned available on
a daily basis for children who attend St Andrews?
SB: Yes, through our activities and Physical
Education programmes.
AW: It sounds like the location is a positive
advantage?
SB: Absolutely. In the future, I’d like to see the
sports camp expand as the school expands, possibly including a
residential element, which would enable us to reach out to other parts
of Thailand and possibly, other countries in South East Asia.
AW: What about the “Sports Camp ESL” component?
SB: It’s a matter of balance. I feel there might be
families considering enrolling their children into international schools
who may feel that their children might need some support in their
acquisition of English, so we’ve added the ESL element with a view
that the children can still promote and develop their English language
skills whilst having fun and playing sports. The many native English
speakers will help create a language rich environment. The teacher will
prepare the programme so that it has a context within what kids are
doing.
AW: It sounds like it must have been an incredible
amount of work putting all this together?
SB: It has been. We’re producing 2000 brochures
which we will be distributing along the Eastern Seaboard. So far, the
feedback has been very positive.
AW: Give me a tip for the Cup Final?
SB: Arsenal will win, 3-2.
AW: Nonsense. United, 3-1. Thanks for your time,
Spencer.
St Andrews Sports Camp runs from Monday July 11 thru
Friday July 22, excluding weekends and is designed for children between
the ages of 6-16. For details call Spencer Bragg at St Andrews
International School, Rayong Green Valley, Rayong 21130, Tel: +66 (0)38
893 716-8 Fax: +66 (0)38 893 720 [email protected]
Next week: They Came For the Communist
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
Every week you get letters from guys who are in trouble, being ripped off,
unsure of what to do, worrying what to do next etc. Why do they keep on doing
this? It seems incredible that this is happening all the time.
Astounded
Dear Astounded,
Why do they keep on doing what? Keep on writing? That’s what advice columns
are all about. Write in and get help. If you wonder why they keep on doing the
same things, then that’s different. Generally it’s something to do with
hormones and being slow learners!
Dear Hillary,
I have just recently come to live in Thailand with my husband on a two year
overseas posting. Normally back home I like to be fairly independent and drive
myself everywhere, as I have my own car, but I am a little afraid of the traffic
here so I haven’t pressed for personal transport. My husband’s company
supplies a driver who takes hubby to work, then comes back for me, but I don’t
like to think of him sitting around in the heat while I do my shopping. Do you
think it is safe enough for Western women to drive here and at night too? My
husband says I shouldn’t bother and it doesn’t matter, that’s what the
driver is there for. What do you think?
Timid Tara
Dear TT,
Goodness me! Why keep a dog and bark yourself? Especially when your husband’s
company is feeding the dog! Your husband is right, Petal. If you have a driver
be eternally grateful. Thai drivers really do not mind waiting. One of the
bonuses of being a driver is that they get paid to sleep while they wait in
air-conditioned comfort. Yes it is safe to drive around in Thailand, but you
must be ready at all times for the unthinking motorbikes. The old adage goes
“You know you’ve been in Thailand too long when you look both ways before
crossing a one way street!” If you are concerned about your independence try
walking everywhere!
Dear Hillary,
I am sixteen years old and I get headakes (sic) too often. I don’t understand
why. Maybe it’s the heat, but I drink a lot of water. I know you are not a
doctor or a psyiochiaterist, but please help me!
Headake (sic)
Dear Headake,
If you have recurring headaches then you should see a doctor. Mind you, the
headaches could be coming from your inability to spell and your teacher shouting
at you! PS, it’s psychiatrist, Petal.
Dear Hillary,
I like watching TV or playing games on the computer, but my Mom say it’s too
much. If I don’t do either of these, I get bored. What shall I do to get Mom
off my back?
Screen Saver
Dear SS,
To get you out of the house, you could start by going round and giving
“Headake” (letter above) some spelling lessons. However, if tuition isn’t
your bag, then just keeping hanging around in front of the screen. Maturity will
come one day, bringing with it booze, girls, responsibility, mortgages, and
children who will complain about being bored.
Dear Hillary,
When I was in the United States, I was planning to get a summer job at a store
near our home. Unfortunately, my folks just moved to Thailand and I don’t see
a way to get a job besides babysitting for some experience in the work area and
some extra cash. I also can’t see a better way to spend my time. What are some
suggestions of what I should do.
Charlene
Dear Charlene,
Getting extra cash is always a problem. Most get rich quick schemes you read
about on the internet only make money for the seller of the scheme. Since the
economic crash of 1997 it’s not even worthwhile robbing the banks here any
more as most of them are broke as well. However, since you are here now, contact
Screen Saver and perhaps you could play tennis together, or ping pong, go
swimming or arm wrestling. On the other hand, you could do something worthwhile
and do some voluntary work for charity. There are plenty of service
organizations always on the lookout for people to help with their charity
programs.
Dear Hillary,
I would like to send some money to my girlfriend in Pattaya, but I have heard
that it is not safe and very often the money doesn’t get there. I have sent
some dollars inside a book, but I can’t keep on sending books every month.
What is your suggestion?
Dwayne
Dear Dwayne,
This is just so easy. Plan A is you send the money every month to dear Hillary
here and I will personally try to make sure she gets it. Seriously, it is just
the same as sending money anywhere - do it through bank transfer and she will
definitely get it. Any other way is too uncertain. If she has not got one
already, get her to open an account here and go from there. You can even do it
by using credit card accounts. Talk to your bank manager, not me. Unless, of
course, you want to try Plan A!
Psychological Perspectives: Research program in Northern provinces
aims to save lives by changing behavior
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
When Somchai’s health began to
deteriorate in March of 2004, both he and his family suspected that HIV
might be the culprit. He experienced fever, diarrhea, and a significant
weight loss. His wife and mother had already begun to distance themselves
from him, avoiding even casual contact, refusing even to share the same
eating utensils for fear of contracting the dreaded AIDS virus.
A 38-year-old woodcarver in Hang Dong District near
Chiang Mai, Somchai had already made up his mind. If his blood test came
back positive for HIV, he would end his own life. The reputation of
HIV/AIDS as a killer is firmly established within this rural community, and
the high cost of medical treatment beyond the reach of Somchai’s 4,000 to
5,000 baht per month income.
When he went for his results, however, Somchai was met
by a nurse counselor who provided not only the unfortunate news of his
positive test results, but also reassuring information about the free
availability of an HIV treatment regimen known as highly active
antiretroviral therapy (HAART), capable of controlling what was once a
routinely fatal progression of the disease.
This was followed by a counseling session directed
towards his family, aimed at providing accurate and up-to-date information
concerning the prognosis and care of people living with HIV/AIDS.
Arrangements were also made for Somchai to meet with others in his
community who are successfully living with the virus, a process known as
“peer counseling.”
Somchai no longer contemplates suicide. His mother has
developed into a community activist of sorts, educating the people of the
village to the facts about HIV, a serious and life-threatening illness, but
one that is capable of effective management. His family no longer fears
infection by casual contact.
The main challenge facing Somchai now is to maintain
very strict adherence to the treatment regimen. This requires him to take
his antiretroviral (ARV) medications every 12 hours, with minimal variation
or missed dosages.
Patients like Somchai, however, typically find the
required level of adherence a major challenge. Less than 95% adherence to
ARV treatment allows the virus to develop drug resistant strains. Unchecked
by the antiretroviral treatment, the virus can once again begin to
replicate, attacking and destroying the body’s protective immune system.
A weakened immune system allows opportunistic infections to occur, placing
the patient’s life at risk, and requiring treatment with other expensive
drugs.
Adherence to a treatment regimen is, by its nature, a
psychological issue, since it requires changing patients’ attitudes and
behavior. For this reason, Dr. Sombat Tapanya, a psychologist with previous
research experience on issues of treatment adherence, provided a valuable
psychological perspective. The outcome of this research is expected to
demonstrate that both medical and psychological components are necessary in
order to achieve maximal treatment effectiveness.
To assist him with strict adherence, Somchai was
provided with an alarm watch, which signals him each time he must take his
medications. He meets monthly with his assigned counselor who monitors his
adherence to treatment, and tries to address social and economic issues
that could adversely affect him and his family. He also participates
regularly in peer counseling, in which he and other patients provide mutual
support and encouragement to maintain adherence to ARV treatment and avoid
infecting others.
Somchai is one of about 700 participants in a research
project aimed at increasing treatment adherence among people living with
HIV/AIDS. The project, jointly funded by the Population Council, an
international nonprofit NGO, and the Thai Ministry of Public Health, is
being carried out in 45 hospitals in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lampang and
Lampoon provinces. The project utilizes four teams of workers; a clinical
team, led by Tasana Leusaree, M.D., a counseling team, led by psychologist
Sombat Tapanya, Ph.D. and Sangworn Sombatmai, peer intervention, led by
Sureerat Treemakara, and an evaluation team, led by Suwat Chariyalertsak,
M.D., Ph.D.
Armed with life saving medications, knowledge, and
psychosocial support, Somchai and others living with HIV/AIDS in Northern
Thailand are empowered to resume their lives, after receiving a diagnosis
that formerly would have meant a death sentence.
This innovative program to increase adherence to ARV treatment is the
first of its kind in Southeast Asia. Plans are now underway to make similar
programs available in other areas of Thailand, as well as other countries
in the region.
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Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University,
Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at
http://asianupsych.blogspot.com
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Sound and Vision
By Justin
Trousers
“Sound and Vision” is now three months old. I have received some
feedback, mainly from employees of banks in various African countries who have
kindly offered to give me several million dollars if I send them my banking
details. If you have any comments or suggestions (e.g. “Stop writing
immediately.”), please send to me at [email protected].
Game
Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell – Chaos Theory
This is the third, and best, game in the Splinter Cell
series. Available on multiple platforms including the PS2, X-box and Nokia
N-Gage; I played the PC version.
You are Sam Fisher, an NSA black-ops agent who, as the game
progresses, becomes increasingly involved in attempts to stop a situation in
the Far East escalating into war.
This is not the usual point, shoot, shoot some more and then
reload, type of game. Stealth and tactics are required which tax your brain
more than your trigger finger. You are equipped with many aids to assist you in
your stealthy activities; night vision goggles, infra-red goggles and a sensor
which highlights how much sound you are making compared to the ambient noise.
Creep up behind someone in a noisy engine room and he will not hear you coming.
Run across a quiet room and you will be heard and quickly dealt with. Light is
also your enemy and if you can’t find a route that keeps you in the shadows,
then you have to find ways of eliminating the light source; such as shooting
out the bulb or switching off a generator. Each challenge is cleverly designed
and there are multiple routes and approaches to completing your objectives. Mix
in some very powerful artificial intelligence such that you can believe that
there are real adversaries trying to track you down, and you have a totally
immersive gaming experience.
Adding to the feeling of reality are the beautiful graphics.
On a PC with a high-end graphics card, the lighting effects from light bulbs,
spotlights, flares and torches are perfectly implemented, and the environments
are detailed and vibrant with activity (swinging lights and ropes, working
machinery, computers and TVs, etc.). A well written script and storyline,
supplemented by realistic sound effects and music by Anton Torbin, all
implemented in 5.1 Dolby Digital, further enhance the experience.
Overall, this is a very high quality, intelligent game which
is challenging and enjoyable to play.
Millions of dollars are required to produce a game such as
Splinter Cell. Watching the credits roll takes a long time, there are literally
hundreds of people involved in the design, development, production and
marketing; just like a movie. And just like a movie, there has to be a director
responsible for the whole enterprise. The director of Splinter Cell Chaos
Theory was Florent Siri, who also directed the previous game in the series and
made the acclaimed French movie, “The Nest”.
Someone was impressed enough with his work on this game to
give him even more millions of dollars, and Bruce Willis, to direct
“Hostage.” Read on!
Movie
Hostage
 The opening credits of this movie are in three colour
lino-cut style which gradually soften to reveal a hostage situation in
progress. Cleverly done, but spoiled at the screening we saw because nobody
bothered to turn on the sound for the first five minutes…..
Bruce Willis is Jeff Talley, the lead negotiator whose
decisions during this crisis result in the death of a family and the end of his
negotiating career. “One year later” and Talley is the chief cop in a small
town, still emotionally damaged from the deaths he felt he caused and with a
failing marriage.
All this happens in the first fifteen minutes, so we know
that he is not going to spend the rest of the movie giving out parking tickets
and bickering with his wife. Sure enough, three young men break into the local
home of a rich businessman Walter Smith (an under-used Kevin Pollack) and when
events spiral out of control, take Smith and his two children hostage.
I won’t spoil the movie for you by telling you more of the
plot; suffice it to say that there are others who want access to Smith, which
results in Talley trying to protect two families in an increasingly dangerous
and violent stand-off.
Willis plays a tough guy, but a tough guy who is damaged,
vulnerable, and prone to tears when the situation gets really desperate. Willis
is excellent, and the rest of the cast do a fine job of portraying
personalities cracking under stress.
Taut writing, directing and editing ensure that the story
proceeds at an energetic pace, with no unnecessary padding or diversions, to a
tense finale with a believable twist.
A hard-hitting thriller delivering solid entertainment and an impressive
American movie debut for Florent Siri. I suspect the gaming industry will lose
his skills, as potential movie scripts must already be piling up on his
doorstep.
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