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Money matters: Financial Market
Part 2
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
We’ve already seen that the need for current account
adjustment has applied upwards pressure on interest rates (and possibly already
some minor consequent decline in stock prices) to prevent the stimulus from net
exports from pushing GDP much above potential. This is taking place against a
backdrop of softening domestic investment and consumption. Admittedly, it is
possible for that to take place in an orderly fashion. Increases in interest
rates and a weakening of domestic spending have not always implied a disorderly
correction. That’s essentially what the Fed research manages to establish even
with their various inappropriate historic comparisons. What it doesn’t address
is how the frothy US asset bubble can avoid declines in asset prices of a
magnitude that would do something rather worse than merely stabilizing GDP. Even
the researchers agree that there is a level of reduction in US asset values that
would result in significant economic contraction.
What they also fail to take into account is the possibility
of an economic slowdown and/or asset price contraction as a catalyst for further
currency falls which then creates a vicious spiral of further slowdown and
further disinvestment and asset value falls. In other words, there is more than
one potential cause under which the disorderly correction scenario is plausible,
but the researchers tend to limit their focus to a very narrow view of
causality.
Any analysis of cause and effect needs to look at the impact
of the economy on the currency as well as vice versa. We don’t dispute the
historical data that a run on the Greenback by itself is not sufficient to cause
markets to become “disorderly” in that technical sense of the word - the
dollar declines in the mid-1980s and since 2002 have not been associated with
any discernable degree of market malfunction. We do, however, dispute the
implied contention that this means that there is a historic precedent to assume
that this will be how the current deficit is worked out. The dissimilarity of
the historic comparisons does not offer any comfort that the present deficit can
correct without problems.
One example is that complete absence of any critical
comparison of stock prices, in terms of p/e ratios or any other historic basis
of stock price evaluation. Actually we have a problem in relying on simple p/e
ratios as a guide to realistic stock values – stocks are a claim to a
future stream of free cash flows, i.e. the cash that can actually be
delivered to shareholders over time after all other obligations have been
satisfied, including the provision for future growth.
Price/earnings ratios based on operating earnings are
inherently misleading, since that “earnings” figure does not deduct interest
owed to bondholders nor taxes owed to the government. The price/operating
earnings ratio therefore makes high debt companies look misleadingly cheap.
Since the debt burden of U.S. corporations has increased
substantially in recent years, this also means that current price/operating
earnings ratios are not comparable to historical ones. However, a properly
critical analysis such as this should, at the very least, pay lip service by
comparing the relative levels of stocks at the onset of current account
adjustments.
If critically adjusted stock levels are below, at or close to
historic norms, there should be no expectation that their performance will be
comparable to that of markets where indices are, on an adjusted basis,
stratospheric.
In terms of P/E ratios, it’s important for the “E”
chosen by an investor to have a reasonably stable relationship to what matters,
which is the long-term stream of free cash flows. The long-term earnings growth
for the S&P 500 has been 6% annually.
This is true regardless of whether one looks back 10, 20, 50
or 100 years. Given that the average historical price/peak earnings ratio for
the S&P 500 is 14 - with the bulk of that history represented by periods of
lower inflation and lower interest rates than currently exist - and that the
median ratio is 11, it is fairly simple to combine this information to produce
adjusted long-term expectations for stock returns and, importantly for a
critical evaluation such as this, to formulate meaningfully adjusted relative
valuation assumptions.
The situation that we now face is 2005’s situation where
the twin deficits look increasingly unmanageable in the context of an enormously
leveraged economy, in which that leverage has sustained unprecedented increases
in asset prices. This taints the whole analysis with a fatal flaw.
The second fatal flaw in the research is the stated opinion
of the researchers of a reduced likelihood of US asset disposals following a
currency fall “in a world of rational expectations, such a scenario would be
unlikely: as the dollar declined, investors would judge that the dollar had less
far to go to reach its equilibrium value, and this decline in expectations of
depreciation would buoy stock and bond prices.”
Have these people never lived through a crash? The more
stocks fell in 1987, the keener investors were to sell. For some investors this
is a rational decision based on increasing uncertainty changing the investment
landscape, for others it may well be a matter of no choice if they are leveraged
or their financial positions are suddenly changed in a contracting economy. For
many, periods of uncertainty breed fear and lead to irrational selling even
beyond the point where fair value has been passed.
The researchers’ idea that further currency falls and a
slowing economy could each take place independent of U.S. stock and bond markets
is highly unlikely. We fail to see how the appetites of both foreign and
domestic investors would not be reduced voluntarily or as a matter of
compulsion, deliberately and irrationally in such a situation. This is how
crashes develop.
The third weakness stems from the failure to recognise one of
the most significant differences in the present situation when they are working
through the process of how historic corrections have occurred. The issue about
the current account deficit is that when it has to be paid, the contractionary
pressures on the economy as a whole increase as more and more GDP goes to
service the debt burden and less gets spent or growth.
Next week, part 3…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: Cameras for the seniors
by Harry Flashman
 There
is a great tendency for families (and individuals) to write off granny or
granddad just because they have reached the age of retiral. This is very
wrong, as many of our senior citizens need something to keep them
stimulated, to stop them growing old too soon. Photography is an ideal
pastime for our seniors, as it is something that can be picked up and put
down at will, it is not too physically demanding, and modern cameras can
assist in some areas where age has taken some toll. And the end result is
something that can give them great joy, be that award winning sunsets or
just pictures of the grandchildren.
So what camera should granny get? The first
pre-requisite is autofocus (AF). There are many reasons for this, but
since sharp focus is necessary for a good final print, why not let the
camera do it for you, when sharpness in vision is something that becomes
very problematical as you get older. Since most people need reading
glasses by the time they are 45, and at least half the population has mild
cataracts by the time they are 60, AF is the way to go! Provided you can
point the camera in the right direction, the camera will do the rest.
Actually there are two types of camera which can do
this. They are called Auto Focus (AF) or Fixed Focus. The AF ones are the
more expensive, and work by moving the lens in and out electronically to
focus on the subject in the middle of the viewfinder, just as if you were
doing it yourself. They do this quickly and accurately and will even give
an audible ‘beep’ to let you know the focus has been set.
The Fixed Focus types are generally satisfactory for
all but close-up shots. They rely on the lens design to keep the entire
picture in focus. Their zone of sharpness extends from about two meters
away to infinity; however, do not be afraid to try the new advanced
cameras, they make life easier, just use them to your advantage.
Another problem often associated with aging is
stiffening of the fingers. Today’s cameras take care of this as well.
Technology has developed the easy load system for you. Just drop the film
cassette into the camera, pull the film across about five centimetres and
close the camera back. The camera will automatically wind the film on and
stop ready at frame number 1. It will indicate if the take up is not
successful, and will not operate until the film is in correctly. Nothing
could be simpler or more fool proof.
Remember those dreadful fiddly pull up handles to
rewind the film? The tiny button under the camera you had to push at the
same time? Try using those with arthritic fingers. Now you don’t have
to, with Auto Rewind as well. When the last shot has been taken, the film
automatically rewinds itself into the cassette.
Zoom lenses save you having to go the distance. Is it
just too much of a hassle these days to walk up to distant objects to get
close-up details? Then a zoom lens will do it for you. With a zoom lens it
is no problem at all to get a close-up, a wide angle and a distant shot
from the same camera position. Maybe an autofocus compact camera with an
inbuilt zoom lens is just the camera for you. Just push a button to make
the zoom bring the subject closer or farther away.
Today’s camera manufacturers have taken the tears out
of flash too. Most new cameras have their own in-built flash which comes
on when the light levels are too low, will set their own flash power and
give you perfectly lit indoor night shots every time.
So there you have it, Grey Power. There are cameras available now which
can get you into photography! If you once had the ‘photographic eye’,
then that ability is still there. All you have to do is get the equipment
to let you use and enjoy it again. Look for suitable AF compacts with
built in zoom, auto load and auto flash.
Modern Medicine: Move over Atkins,
here comes Corness!
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
I hear much from fat people about their “bad
metabolism” and how lucky thin people are to have a “good metabolism”.
Other than in a few spectacularly rare endocrine diseases, “bad metabolism”
is not to blame for the shapes of 99.999 percent of fat people.
However, human metabolism is involved in the fat cycle, which
is the same for all of us. Understand the following equation and you have now
become your own personal dietician:
“Input exactly equals Output, plus or minus what goes into
store.”
Read it again:
“Input exactly equals Output, plus or minus what goes into store.”
It means that the energy source (food and drink) equals the
energy output (physical and mental effort), plus or minus what is stored (or
removed) from your body as fat. This equation is independent of whatever you
call the energy, be that kilojoules or calories or sugarlumps.
In simple terms, if the Input and Output are the same - then
your weight stays the same. If the Input is greater than the Output, you have an
excess that goes into store and you put on weight. If the Input is less than the
Output, then you are in a deficit, the body makes up the energy levels it needs
by burning up fat from the store, so you lose weight. Honestly, it is that
simple.
So here we go, if you really want to lose weight (and you
must do or you would have already gone to the next page), I present the well
tried, proven and effective diet that I have modestly called the Dr. Corness 75
percent diet. (Others do this for their diets, why shouldn’t I do it for
mine?) This diet is guaranteed. It will get the weight off, and keep it off and
you do not have to count one calorie or kilojoule or sugarlump. If by following
this diet you have not lost weight after four weeks, write to me and I will
write back and tell you that you are a liar. Guaranteed!
This diet works by decreasing your input by 25 percent. In
other words you can have 75 percent of what you would normally eat and drink
every day. If you have four cream buns a day, you can have three! If you eat a
pound of beef every night, you can have three quarters of a pound. That’s
right, you don’t need to deny yourself anything! However, you do need to be
honest with yourself.
Write down everything you eat for a week, work out the real
75 percents and then stick to it. By decreasing the input by 25 percent, you
make the Input less than the Output, so the body needs to drag the deficit out
of the store, which is the fat that is deposited under the skin and around all
your organs.
Of course, if you want to really ensure there is a deficit,
you can always increase the Output at the same time. A daily walk that you
didn’t do before, walking to someone’s office in your building, rather than
lifting the telephone, also uses up energy. Use the stairs, rather than the
elevators.
The only downside to this diet is that you will not see
instant results, and you will feel hungry for a few days. The reason for this is
that the storage fat has to change into ‘energy’ fat before it can make up
the deficit, and this takes two weeks. Your body will not chemically do this
either, until you are in the deficit situation. Happy slimming!
Learn to Live to Learn: Aspiring to Excellence
with Andrew Watson
Excellence all starts with an idea.
Then the idea has to be affirmed. Without affirmation, the idea lies
derelict, disregarded and unwanted, at worst treated like an obnoxious
smell, something so outrageous that the perpetrator feels ashamed to
have brought the idea to light at all.
Encapsulated in an “idea” is the understanding
that “anything is possible” and “nothing is impossible”. As
Santiago learns in Paulo Coelho’s Alchemist, “It is the possibility
of dreams coming true, which makes life interesting”.
If the world had succumbed to a philosophy where
dreams where viewed as dangerous, or where blind prejudice had always
(instead of sometimes) prevented individual possibilities from being
realized, then I propose, very few of the world’s great achievements
would have happened at all.
Leonardo’s sketch book is testament to a wonderful
world of ideas, where knowledge and imagination have fused and have
become a symbiotic, scintillating and prolific concoction.
Simply put, before the Wright brothers flew their
plane, they dreamed of flying. Then, someone dared to dream that the
moon was just another achievable objective.
Yet, how many dreams lie shattered, smashed by
unimaginative and uninspired minds? Survey the wreckage, of a thousand
broken hearts mercilessly crushed by the embittered remnants of a bygone
age. Ideas affirmed are beautiful things and they necessitate commitment
to excellence. They are the genesis from which all things become
reality.
For instance, you ask a child, “What do you want to
be when you grow up?” and they reply, “I want to be an Astronaut”.
If you then respond, “Now, hold on, Laddy/Ladette, you don’t seem to
realize how much work this means, there are lots of other things you can
do, you know, and lots of people better than you!” then the dream is
squashed underfoot. Surely we’ve all experienced this?
Purveyors of gloom, quite naturally, are articulating
their own view of how ‘possible’ things can be and probably for
them, have been. Congenital disappointees. But what if you respond by
saying, “Laddy/Ladette, that is a fantastic idea! Go for it!”
A life can be made in such moments.
The rest is organisation and hard work but the dream
fuels the journey and what, oh what, are we afraid of? Failure? Martin
Luther King gave me a Mantra – “It is low aim, not failure, that is
sin”.
Kipling puts it thus, “If you can fill the
unforgiving minute with sixty seconds of distance run, yours is the
world and all that’s in it, and what’s more, you’ll be a man, (or
woman. Ed) my son.”
I was fortunate indeed to spend a great deal of time
in my youth with a very well known figure in the world of finance, Dr
Gareth Jones. I had the grandiose idea (and associated five year plan)
of playing for the United States in the Soccer World Cup, on the basis
that they seemed to qualify more regularly than England and there was
less competition for places. So I took this idea to Dr Jones, because I
greatly valued his opinion and I was concerned because I had never heard
of this being done before, on which grounds I doubted that it were
possible at all.
I will always remember his response. He looked me in
the eye, grinned his Welsh grin and exclaimed, “Excellent! So you’ll
be the first, then!” I felt a wave of affirmation and self-confidence
that meant that success was inevitable – if I wanted it. As it turned
out, I wanted something else even more - but that’s another story.
Of course, it should be pointed out and has been in
this column previously, that promoting the idea that “anything is
possible” has a dark side as well. The “idea” of exterminating a
whole racial group on an industrial basis is as fundamentally sickening
as the “idea” that it is possible to fly passenger jets as suicide
bombs.
Further, many would argue that the concept of
affirming an aspiration of an individual whom you genuinely consider to
have no chance of achieving their dream, cannot be condoned on the
grounds of ethics and honesty.
However, in education, where so much relies on the
integrity, knowledge, imagination and experience of the teacher, you
might very well think that the parameters are slightly different. For
example, as a school you wouldn’t accept students onto a course who,
in your profession opinion, you considered academically unsuited to it.
A fee-paying private educational institution is very
much a two-way street and I would regard it as an absolute scandal for a
school to accept students onto any programme without committing
themselves to providing, nay guaranteeing, their success. How,
otherwise, can they genuinely claim to be aspiring to excellence?
Vienna International School doesn’t have a Mission
Statement, it has a guarantee. Schools that are willing to enrol
students and take the fee-payers cash, simply have to provide the
product and put in place systems to ensure the success of every student.
Dumbledore says as much in Harry Potter. “It is not
our abilities, it is our choices, which make us who we are.”
Excellence is a choice you make. Indeed, as I direct my students, “If
you can’t be good, be excellent!”
Next week: Risk, What Risk?
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
Dear old Pater has decided to pay myself and the adorable wee Malteser
queens (Nit and Ying) a visit and is hoping to indulge in some amenable
recreations. Pater has always shown a dedicated interest in pheasant
plucking and wonders if gamebirds are available locally.
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
Again you pointedly ignore the fact that you have not come across with
the promised goodies to my goodself. (For any new readers, this
Mistersingha person promised buckets of chocolates and oceans of
champagne for my services a couple of years back. I am still a lady in
waiting.) Why should I do anything for you at this juncture. As the old
Indian proverb goes, “He who cheats me once - shame on him. He who
cheats me twice - shame on me.” As far as your father is concerned and
his penchant for gamebirds, he will have no problems as long as his
shooter has a silver inlaid barrel.
Dear Hillary,
I would like to publicise an experience I had
recently, in the hope that is will serve as a warning to all farangs
like myself who live in this country and are accustomed to enjoying the
pleasures it offers. This is one of the dangers it offers.
I would like to explain that as an English teacher, I
was well aware of those students who were studious and bright yet could
not progress to further education since their family background was
poor. I often wished there could have been some miracle to allow these
students to follow those from more fortunate backgrounds.
Earlier this month I was returning to my condo when I
noticed a young girl waiting in the corridor. I began talking to her and
she explained that she had come to see a farang but as he had not turned
up, she had a problem. I suggested she come into my room to discuss her
problem. Although young, she struck me as well brought up and politely
spoken. It transpired that she was a student at Ramkhamhaeng University.
The problem was that this farang was due to give her some money. Her
sister had paid 1,500 baht to the university as her fees outstanding for
last term and she needed a further 3,000 baht in fees due for the coming
term. She had to send 4,500 baht to her sister as soon as possible. She
gave me her sister’s phone number and said she would be able to repay
me on the 20th of the month when her sister got her salary. I was sure
that this girl needed to continue her university education. I was also
impressed that she did not want to take money without assuring me that
it would be repaid. She thanked me politely and left.
A few days later, the same young girl came again.
This time she informed me that she had lost her ID card. “The fine for
lost ID card is 3,500 baht. I will pay you back, of course,” she said.
Another day or two passes and on the morning of the
19th she knocks at my door again. “Hello, you are early!” I remark
naively. She does not reply but marches straight into the room and sits
on the sofa. “By the way, I have to tell you something, I want 3,000
baht, now.” When I replied in the negative she said, “You pay me
3,000 baht. You pay now. You not pay, you big problem. I know policeman
- not ordinary policeman - big policeman. You not pay, he take you. He
put you in monkey house!”
Not having the presence of mind either to ask for her
ID card or take a photo of her, I escort her from my room. I then went
to seek the wisdom of a Thai friend who said, “Get out. Go to Bangkok
for three weeks. You must not be there when they come and open the door
to them.”
She tells me that in Thailand some people are very
dangerous, just like in other countries. I could be hand-cuffed and led
away or I could be beaten senseless by a couple of heavies.
To you my fellow papas, if you see a young girl,
however, innocent, polite, cleanly turned out, she may appear to be,
avoid her like the plague. Remember, she has been PLANTED there by an
army of highly unpleasant and corrupt people! This is a game little
girls play in Thailand.
Jomtien Hotpapa
Dear Jomtien Hotpapa,
There was too much in your letter to publish in its
entirety, but you do highlight the dangers of being too trusting, not
just in Thailand, I must add. Would you invite young girls to your room
in your own country, and then lend them money? “Nice” young
university students do not hang around condominium buildings waiting for
foreigners to seek “loans”, now do they? It has been pointed out
many times in this column that if you want to give money to sweet young
things, then consider it a donation. It never is a ‘loan’. While I
sympathize with you in many ways, you did leave yourself open to being
taken advantage of. As you correctly point out, “(it is a) warning to
all farangs like myself who live in this country and are accustomed to
enjoying the pleasures it offers.” There’s no gain without pain, my
Petal.
Psychological Perspectives: Comprehensive sex education
is effective against the spread of HIV
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
Comprehensive sex education is an
effective means of reducing the risk among adolescents and young adults of
contracting HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. That is the conclusion of a
review of over 15 years of prevention research by the world’s largest
professional organization of psychologists, the American Psychological
Association (APA).
Surveys show that by the age of 15 about one in five
adolescents has had sex. Most of those who remain sexually active do not
consistently use condoms. More than half of new HIV infections occur among
those under the age of 25. Unprotected sex is, by far, the major cause of
infections within this age group. Experts believe that youth typically do
not consider themselves in danger of infection, and lack authoritative
information concerning risk factors for contracting HIV.
Unfortunately, sex education in the schools is a
contentious issue in some quarters. Although the majority of parents
support comprehensive sex education programs for their children, some
individuals express concern that sex education might have the unintended
result of encouraging sexual experimentation among young people who might
not otherwise become sexually active. Some, who favor sex education,
advocate that only abstinence be promoted to teens as an HIV prevention
measure. It is sometimes suggested that condoms are not effective in
protecting against the virus. Research, however, has demonstrated that such
concerns and suggestions are unjustified.
Contrary to the belief of some, comprehensive sex
education programs that provide information concerning the appropriate use
of condoms do not promote sexual activity among young people. Comprehensive
sex education programs, and programs that promote abstinence only, are both
effective in delaying the onset of sexual intercourse, according to
psychologist Maureen Lyon, Chair of the APA committee charged with
investigating the matter. Nevertheless, there remains a significant
disadvantage in the abstinence only approach.
Programs that exclusively promote virginity pledges,
abstinence only, and abstinence until marriage are actually more risky than
more comprehensive sex education programs. That is because when
participants in abstinence only programs do become sexually active, they
are less likely to use condoms, thus increasing their risk of pregnancy and
sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Comprehensive sex education, however,
provides the best protection from teen pregnancy and STDs like HIV.
Comprehensive sex education programs are those that
provide authoritative information about human sexuality and reproduction,
encourage abstinence, promote condom use for sexually active persons, and
encourage fewer sexual partners. Such programs also emphasize the
importance of prompt diagnosis and treatment of STDs, and teach young
people effective skills for communicating about sexual matters.
The APA committee report recommends that educational
programs that are intended to help prevent the transmission of HIV and
other STDs among young people be based upon sound empirical research.
Further, new programs, such as abstinence-only and abstinence until
marriage programs should be tested against programs that have a
demonstrated track record of effectiveness before being approved for
widespread use.
Other APA recommendations focus upon the need to educate
policy makers about research concerning the failure of abstinence-only and
abstinence until marriage programs in preventing the spread of HIV among
young people.
The full APA report from the Ad Hoc Committee on
Psychology and AIDS is available for download at
http://www.apa.org/releases/sexed_resolution.pdf
What is the status of sex education in primary schools in Thailand? I
would enjoy hearing the views and experiences of parents, students, and
educators in the region. Please send me your stories by email, or post to
my web log.
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Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University,
Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at
http://asianupsych.blogspot.com
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Sound and Vision
By Justin
Trousers
Movies
Be Cool
 Starring
John Travolta, Gene Hackman and Danny de Vito, 1995’s “Get Shorty” was a
slick, enjoyable and highly successful comedy based on a novel by Elmore
Leonard. With an eye on the sequel dollar, Leonard then wrote “Be Cool”
which has now made it to the big screen. Travolta stars again, with Danny de
Vito making a brief appearance (so brief, I had forgotten why by the end of the
movie). No sign of Hackman, but Uma Thurman, Harvey Kietel and Vince Vaughn
make up an impressive enough cast lists.
But the results are dire. This is the worst movie I have
seen for some time, and I have suffered some rubbish. The plot is inane, the
script is worse and the acting is wooden. Given Travolta and Thurman’s
history in Pulp Fiction you might expect some chemistry between them; but there
is nothing. The movie even includes a dance sequence which is presumably meant
to be a pastiche of their dance in Pulp Fiction; but it is just plain
embarrassing. There are many many scenes where the dialogue and acting is of
high-school play standard, there is no humour, and you are sat there thinking
“why am I here and when can I leave.” This is the first movie in years that
I have considered walking out of. The few laughs are provided by Andre Benjamin
(from Outkast) as a rap star turned inept hoodlum; if it wasn’t for him I
think the entire audience would have sat in stunned silence throughout.
Sometimes the movie plays like an MTV video with additional product placement;
with Steve Tyler from Aerosmith making a “guest appearance” and proving he
is not an actor and is not best viewed in close-up under studio lights.
I was bored by this movie within half an hour and then
became increasingly angry that I had wasted my money and my time to sit through
such nonsense and those studios continue to churn out this mindless rubbish in
the hope of an easy dollar. Be Cool? Be Crap!
DVD
Dark Blue
 During
my weekly visit to the bookshop to purchase my copy of the Pattaya Mail, Miss
Julie heads for the trash magazine area and usually comes home with a something
that features articles and photos covering the less than interesting lives of
celebrities. The last one included a photo of some starlet with a piece of
chocolate on her face, including a zoomed in close-up of the offending
confectionery; that is how desperate these magazines are for news. Of course
celebrity couples score double points, and so Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell make
frequent appearances for reasons that I cannot recall. But being trash magazine
fodder was pretty much how I considered Kurt Russell’s role in life, together
with occasionally being an average actor in average films.
Hunting among the budget titles I found “Dark Blue”,
starring Kurt Russell with “an acclaimed ensemble cast” (which usually
means actors you have never heard of who are useless) in a “gritty police
thriller” (which usually means formulaic junk). So it was with little
enthusiasm that I slotted this one into the DVD player and sat back to be
unimpressed.
Set in Los Angeles during the time just before the riots
inspired by the Rodney King case, Russel plays a corrupt cop, from a family of
corrupt cops. His rookie assistant (Scott Speedman) is being trained in the
ways of corruption by Russell, and their boss (Brendan Gleeson) is downright
evil; responsible for initiating a savage robbery at a convenience store at the
start of the movie which leaves many people dead. These white cops are the bad
guys, with the good guy black cop (Ving Rhames) trying to bring them down. The
LA police are shown to be corrupt and racist; and although the movie is not
about the Rodney King riots, there is a clear message that the LAPD played
their part in creating the tensions that helped spark the unrest.
Russell’s character could easily be portrayed as a one
dimensional bad guy. But with a sharp script and inventive direction, Russell
gives a powerful performance as a man haunted by the demons of his family and
his own wrong-doings. And the ensemble cast is indeed worthy of acclaim; every
role is well played, with Gleeson as the bad boss a standout.
It’s a dark, uncompromising thriller with the final scenes
played out amongst the riots where the random violence and looting is
chillingly displayed. The finale is over the top and too easy; but overall this
is an excellent movie which is unlikely to be used by the LAPD as a recruiting
tool. The DVD includes a “making of” featurette which is interesting and
highlights that the movie was shot on a low budget, which makes the result
(especially the riot scenes) particularly impressive. But overall it is the
acting of Kurt Russell that makes the movie; certainly a career best and worthy
of Oscar nomination had the studio bothered to push it. Around 200 baht with
Thai/English soundtracks and sub-titles.
Classic Trousers –
‘Top Gun’
 It’s been twenty years since Top Gun hit the screens and
made Tom Cruise into a major star. To commemorate the occasion, and to make
some more money, the movie has been re-released on DVD with a commentary, with
a second disc stuffed with extra features.
After successes with Flashdance and Beverly Hills Cop,
producers Don Simpson and Jerry Bruckheimer were looking for their next hit.
After spotting an article on the Fightertown jet fighter training school they
commissioned a script and hired Tony Scott to direct (mainly on the strength of
an advertisement he had made for Saab which featured a jet fighter). A young
budding actor by the name of Tom Cruise was brought on board, along with Kelly
McGillis and Val Kilmer. Scott was insistent that the movie had to use real
aircraft for the aerial sequences and the crew spend weeks at airfields and on
aircraft carriers to get the shots they needed. At one point Scott pulled out
his personal cheque book and wrote a cheque for $25,000 to get the captain of
an aircraft carrier to change course so he could get the light in the position
he needed.
The movie was a major hit worldwide, cemented the reputation
of Simpson and Bruckheimer as hit makers and Scott went on to make many
successful movies including last year’s excellent Man on Fire. Tom Cruise has
done reasonably well too.
Watching any classic movie again after many years always
brings the risk that it will not be as good as you remember it. But Top Gun
still works, with only Kelly McGillis’s outfits looking dated (according to
my clothing consultant Miss Julie). The flight sequences are superb, especially
those at the start of the movie. The songs and music score complement the
action, and the script is still witty and fresh, if a little corny in places.
Of course this is not a high-art movie, it’s a popcorn movie, but it’s
still great popcorn.
The extras disc contains more than two hours of
supplementary material, mainly showing the director, producers, actors and real
fighter pilots recalling their experiences in making the movie. It’s fun,
fascinating and well presented. Also included is the original promotional
material and the music videos for the songs included in the movie. A complete
package then; and available in region 3 formats with Thai subtitles, widescreen
format and DTS sound. If you’ve “got the need, the need for speed”, you
can find it in the Top Gun special edition; bring your own popcorn!
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